If A causes B and I am doing A (willingly, knowingly, ...), then I can be held responsible for B. But what if probabilities are involved? Thought experiment: If you roll a 1 on a die you win. You ...
Suppose we believe the "thirder" position of the Sleeping Beauty Problem. That is, we believe that P(Heads | Waking up) = 1/3. Applying Bayes' theorem, we get P(Heads | Waking up) = P(Waking up | ...
Let's take that person's subjective experience of the universe is given. If we take for example one particular person - lets say the person that is reasoning about this question (denoted with I in the ...
Suppose you have to choose between: a. getting 1$ b. getting a ticket of the lottery L(p) which gives you 1'000'000'000$ with probability p and 0 with probability (1-p), with p such that the ...
To what extent did belief in monotheism play a role in the development of modern probability theory?
The most appropriate statement of monotheism is surely the Shema which, as is widely known, is highly related to the Abrahamic faiths. In Chapter 1 of the book "against the gods: the remarkable story ...
I read about Cox's theorem a long time ago in "Jaynes Probability Theory: The Logic of Science". It was used to justify the so-called "logical" interpretation of probability. My impression was that ...