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Do premises in modus tollendo tollens arguments require greater certainty than others?

In a standard syllogism, the two premises of the argument are independent of each other, so all extrinsic warrant being equal, the argument will prove the conclusion to be probable if and only if... ...
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1answer
41 views

Is there a name for the following gambling fallacy?

I'm writing a paper on the game of blackjack and I'm trying to make a point about how a common player's attitude is a logical/statistical fallacy in the following situation: When any common person ...
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1answer
42 views

Probability and logic

Is probability theory (using Kolmogorov's axioms) an extension of the propositional calculus, or an extension of first order logic?
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2answers
65 views

Why is probability used to make decisions?

If I am offered two bets to choose one from, and either wins $100 or losses $100, I would want to know the chances of winning in order to decide which one to pick. For example, if one bet has a 90% ...
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0answers
26 views

Does the argument for Boltzmann brains depend on it being merely possible?

The argument for Boltzmann brains seems to be that the odds of being one is much greater than being as we actually are, or seem to be. I wanted to know whether the argument is undermined if we assume ...
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1answer
248 views

Hilbert's Sixth Problem: Is Kolmogorov's solution the last word?

The demand for axiomatization of probability was put forward by Hilbert at the very beginning of the past century: it was the sixth problem in his famous twenty three problems he deemed of high ...
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2answers
80 views

How does Bernoulli's theorem make an inference from chance to frequencies and not vice versa?

I am currently working on an assignment of mine about Frequentism and Bayesianism. In my studies I've found this source: http://statweb.stanford.edu/~cgates/PERSI/Courses/Phil166-266//IV-Frequency2013....
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8answers
228 views

Why do people perceive the randomness of events so poorly?

People who are not trained in statistics and randomness (and even sometimes those who are) tend to draw horrible conclusions about whether an event is random or caused. Fundamentally my question is - ...
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4answers
84 views

How does it make sense to infer the existence of a group from a sequence of events?

Just read an interesting section in The Drunkard's Walk - L. Mlodinow and this section made me think: [people]... confuse[ing] the probability that a series of events would happen if it were the ...
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7answers
1k views

Is a “fair coin toss” a logical contradiction?

A previous question asked about the reality of the gambler's fallacy, in which logic appears to offend common sense. In light of the answers, I am now wondering about the other side of the coin, so to ...
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21answers
15k views

Why don't fair coin tosses “add up”? Or… is “gambler's fallacy” really valid?

I have always been perplexed by a seeming paradox in probability that I'm sure has some simple, well-known explanation. We say that a "fair coin" or whatever has "no memory." At each toss the odds ...
2
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1answer
85 views

Wondering about Probabilities [closed]

I'm wondering the existence of probabilities in general, either in maths ou other. ①➡ I have three balls(1, 2 and 3) inside a bag, and I close the bag. I mix the balls and I take one out. How do I ...
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3answers
58 views

Probability question [duplicate]

For weather forecasts on TV, many claims are made about the probability of single events like there is a “40% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.” Can claims like this make sense given the definition of ...
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2answers
91 views

Bayesian statistics versus inductive skepticism

This is a question replicated here as advised by the statisticians' StackExchanged - see also http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/178857/bayesians-positions-on-inductive-skepticism Philosopher ...
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4answers
96 views

Is it ethical to earn money by convincing young men to enlist in the army during wartime? [closed]

Firstly, is it ethical to convince young men (and women) to risk death and injury by enlisting in the army and going to war? Secondly, if the person running such an enlistment campaign has absolutely ...
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5answers
869 views

What is the difference between a probability and a possibility?

I ask this in a fairly naive way. I understand that "probabilities" can be quantified in frequencies, degrees of belief, etc. with some defined "space" of probability.But I know little about modal ...
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3answers
256 views

When is it not possible to assign a probability?

I know only a little about set theory and probability, and struggle to infer their implications for many traditional metaphysical concepts and questions. I was surprised to read the statement, "......
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3answers
96 views

Thinking that all individuals pursue “selfish” interest is equivalent to assuming that all random variables have zero covariance

I read that: Thinking that all individuals pursue "selfish" interest is equivalent to assuming that all random variables have zero covariance. -- Nero What does that mean, and what does it have to do ...
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1answer
80 views

Is this an instance of the base-rate fallacy?

Pr(Sx ∣ x∈𝓗) ≫ 0 Pr(Sx ∣ Tx & x∈𝓗) ≫ 0 Pr(Sx ∣ ¬Tx & x∈𝓗) ≪ 1 Therefore: Pr(Tx ∣ Sx & x∈𝓗) ≫ 0 Is this an instance of the base-rate fallacy, or is this line of reasoning valid? ...
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1answer
68 views

Is it justified to assess the probability of a claim if the claim is unverifiable or do we have to say the probability is inconclusive?

Suppose there is a claim that outside the observable universe (assuming that there is an outside, other than that we don't know anything about outside) there exists a substance A. Can we conclude that ...
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3answers
157 views

What justifies probability in the case of a onetime experiment?

If I have an "experiment", the results of which can be classified clearly into "outcomes" (like rolling a die), then I can make a concrete and verifiable empirical claim that "if you repeat this ...
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0answers
51 views

Does anyone know of any essays on Adam's Thesis and Deontic Conditionals?

I'm curious if anyone knows of any essays which concerns how deontic conditionals fit with Adam's Thesis. (Adam's Thesis is the idea that the probability of an indicative conditional A > C is equal ...
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3answers
137 views

What does it mean to “conditionalize a probability distrubition”?

What does it mean to "conditionalize a probability distrubition"? In case relevant, I've been reading about "Adam's Thesis", and that's where this phrase has been thrown about.
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1answer
59 views

Jorge Luis Borges suggests that using a lottery is an “intensification of chance.” Does this make sense?

By intensification of chance, Borges adds that a lottery brings "a periodic infusion of chaos into the cosmos." To me, the idea that chance can be "intensified" seems strange. However, I'm also not ...
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0answers
37 views

How much can investigating three nested systems help interpreting probabilistic theories?

Many attempts to interpret quantum mechanics do so by looking at three nested systems. The largest system is essentially the universe or the environment. The smallest system is the one being observed ...
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5answers
991 views

Why are homologies evidence for evolution instead of common design?

I have seen some creationists arguing that when evolutionary biologists use homologies (anatomical or genetic) as evidence for evolution, they are committing the fallacy of affirming the consequent. ...
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1answer
133 views

Is philosophical (total) skepticism compatible with the modern scientific world view?

I've been interested in philosophical skepticism lately as I've just recently learned about the close relationship between certain schools of ancient skepticism and fallibilism, which I'm told is the ...
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1answer
72 views

Plagiarism problem

I have two exactly similar essays from my students. By the rules they should fail the class. But they claim that it's just coincidence. Taking into consideration the fact, that there is nonzero ...
4
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1answer
194 views

Can encrypted information be sent back in time while avoiding the Unproven Theorem Paradox?

Background: The Unproven Paradox involves sending a mathematical proof to individuals in the past that is obtained from the fact that there is a recipient in the past that publicly reveals the proof. ...
2
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1answer
305 views

Almost Sure Mind Transfer via Parfit's Identity Theory (interesting thought experiment)

Under Derek Parfit's theory of identity, we should direct our concern to future selves not because they are identical to us, but because they bear some special relation to our current self. He used ...
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7answers
1k views

Interpret Bayesian probability as frequentist probability?

It is usually said that the Bayesian probability is a subjective concept, quantifying one's degree of belief in something, while the frequentist probability is the the fraction of certain outcomes ...
10
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1answer
161 views

Is there any literature on the relationship between responsibility and probability?

If A causes B and I am doing A (willingly, knowingly, ...), then I can be held responsible for B. But what if probabilities are involved? Thought experiment: If you roll a 1 on a die you win. You ...
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3answers
502 views

Applying Bayes' theorem to Sleeping Beauty

Suppose we believe the "thirder" position of the Sleeping Beauty Problem. That is, we believe that P(Heads | Waking up) = 1/3. Applying Bayes' theorem, we get P(Heads | Waking up) = P(Waking up | ...
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2answers
194 views

Did something improbable happen when I became conscious?

Let's take that person's subjective experience of the universe is given. If we take for example one particular person - lets say the person that is reasoning about this question (denoted with I in the ...
3
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4answers
722 views

Can playing lotteries be rational?

Suppose you have to choose between: a. getting 1$ b. getting a ticket of the lottery L(p) which gives you 1'000'000'000$ with probability p and 0 with probability (1-p), with p such that the ...
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2answers
199 views

To what extent did belief in monotheism play a role in the development of modern probability theory?

The most appropriate statement of monotheism is surely the Shema which, as is widely known, is highly related to the Abrahamic faiths. In Chapter 1 of the book "against the gods: the remarkable story ...
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3answers
347 views

Does Cox's theorem implicitly assumes the three classic laws of thought?

I read about Cox's theorem a long time ago in "Jaynes Probability Theory: The Logic of Science". It was used to justify the so-called "logical" interpretation of probability. My impression was that ...