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10
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1answer
104 views
Is there any literature on the relationship between responsibility and probability?
If A causes B and I am doing A (willingly, knowingly, ...), then I can be held responsible for B. But what if probabilities are involved?
Thought experiment:
If you roll a 1 on a die you win.
You ...
5
votes
3answers
293 views
Applying Bayes' theorem to Sleeping Beauty
Suppose we believe the "thirder" position of the Sleeping Beauty Problem. That is, we believe that P(Heads | Waking up) = 1/3.
Applying Bayes' theorem, we get
P(Heads | Waking up) = P(Waking up | ...
2
votes
2answers
129 views
Did something improbable happen when I became conscious?
Let's take that person's subjective experience of the universe is given. If we take for example one particular person - lets say the person that is reasoning about this question (denoted with I in the ...
1
vote
4answers
212 views
Can playing lotteries be rational?
Suppose you have to choose between:
a. getting 1$
b. getting a ticket of the lottery L(p) which gives you 1'000'000'000$ with probability p and 0 with probability (1-p), with p such that the ...
0
votes
2answers
130 views
To what extent did belief in monotheism play a role in the development of modern probability theory?
The most appropriate statement of monotheism is surely the Shema which, as is widely known, is highly related to the Abrahamic faiths. In Chapter 1 of the book "against the gods: the remarkable story ...
4
votes
3answers
183 views
Does Cox's theorem implicitly assumes the three classic laws of thought?
I read about Cox's theorem a long time ago in "Jaynes Probability Theory: The Logic of Science". It was used to justify the so-called "logical" interpretation of probability. My impression was that ...
