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Jo Wehler
Jo Wehler
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The two examples, coin and Lincoln rock, use two different concepts of probability.

  • The coin example knows the probability 1/2 for the head of a fair coin. Accordingly it computes the probability of two heads in sequence as 1/4 = (1/2) x (1/2).
  • The Lincoln example does not know the probability that an arbitrary rock is a Lincoln rock. Not only that one does not know the probability. The probability is not well-defined. One speaks only informally about the probability of a LinolnLincoln rock.

The two examples, coin and Lincoln rock, use two different concepts of probability.

  • The coin example knows the probability 1/2 for the head of a fair coin. Accordingly it computes the probability of two heads in sequence as 1/4 = (1/2) x (1/2).
  • The Lincoln example does not know the probability that an arbitrary rock is a Lincoln rock. Not only that one does not know the probability. The probability is not well-defined. One speaks only informally about the probability of a Linoln rock.

The two examples, coin and Lincoln rock, use two different concepts of probability.

  • The coin example knows the probability 1/2 for the head of a fair coin. Accordingly it computes the probability of two heads in sequence as 1/4 = (1/2) x (1/2).
  • The Lincoln example does not know the probability that an arbitrary rock is a Lincoln rock. Not only that one does not know the probability. The probability is not well-defined. One speaks only informally about the probability of a Lincoln rock.
Source Link
Jo Wehler
Jo Wehler
  • 42.4k
  • 3
  • 39
  • 121

The two examples, coin and Lincoln rock, use two different concepts of probability.

  • The coin example knows the probability 1/2 for the head of a fair coin. Accordingly it computes the probability of two heads in sequence as 1/4 = (1/2) x (1/2).
  • The Lincoln example does not know the probability that an arbitrary rock is a Lincoln rock. Not only that one does not know the probability. The probability is not well-defined. One speaks only informally about the probability of a Linoln rock.