Timeline for How do you evaluate likelihoods without direct independent evidence?
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13 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Oct 13, 2022 at 9:41 | comment | added | Nikos M. | All these are singular events unrepeatable, thus a probability as frequency of occurence is uncomputable a priori. If one takes the subjective view of probability one can prove any probability simply by making appropriate assumptions, even if ungrounded | |
| Oct 13, 2022 at 8:02 | answer | added | user59124 | timeline score: 1 | |
| Oct 11, 2022 at 15:12 | comment | added | BillOnne | You might have more luck if you divided the mathematical question from the theological question. Figure out how to cope with probabilities and statements about them when the probabilites are ill defined or poorly known. Then bring those experiences into theology if you still think it wise to do so. | |
| Oct 11, 2022 at 8:52 | answer | added | Speakpigeon | timeline score: 0 | |
| Oct 11, 2022 at 4:19 | comment | added | Yuri Zavorotny | I would try and reframe this question around examples that had actually happened. For example, Isaak Newton was rather confident in the existence of gravity, even though it was not experimentally confirmed until more than 100 years later. | |
| Oct 11, 2022 at 1:56 | review | Close votes | |||
| Oct 27, 2022 at 3:05 | |||||
| Oct 11, 2022 at 1:37 | comment | added | BillOnne | Which of the several questions you asked is your question? | |
| Oct 10, 2022 at 21:31 | history | edited | user62907 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Oct 10, 2022 at 20:45 | history | edited | user62907 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Oct 10, 2022 at 20:29 | history | edited | user62907 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Oct 10, 2022 at 20:29 | comment | added | user62907 | Let’s assume the rest are Muslim. Although I’m not sure how this is relevant to the question I’m asking. My general question is this: if there is no direct evidence for something, can we speculate? For example, can we say that the Christian god is more likely to hit an atheist with a lightning bolt than a Christian? | |
| Oct 10, 2022 at 20:24 | comment | added | causative♦ | Islam is descended from Christianity, and say their God is the God of the old testament, so it's dubious to say they worship a different God. Anyway, you didn't say how many Muslims there are in your lottery, so we can't say much about P(Muslim winning | Christianity is correct). If there are nine Muslims and one Christian in the lottery, and no one else, then P(Muslim winning | Christianity is correct) is probably about 0.9, if we assume God rarely intervenes. | |
| Oct 10, 2022 at 20:04 | history | asked | user62907 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |