Isn’t every event by definition improbable in the sense that each event precedes an infinite series of causes that could have (theoretically atleast) been different?
We think of someone winning five lotteries as extremely improbable and a rare event. But the probability of five different, specific people winning five lotteries is the same.
The probability of getting 100 straight heads is the same as any other sequence, yet the other sequences aren’t seen as improbable.
When it comes to other types of mundane events, such as a person walking across the street, isn’t that also an “absurdly improbable” event? Once you factor in the details and specifics of that event, such as the way in which the person is walking, what clothes he’s wearing, what time it is, it also seems very improbable event.
So when, exactly, is an event probable?