Let’s take the event of a leaf falling down from a branch. Currently, we have a fully naturalistic explanation for how this happens.
Theoretically though, one can come up with an infinite number of hypotheses that may also explain this fact. For example, one may entertain the hypothesis that an invisible demon dropped the leaf. Or, one may postulate that this demon or some supernatural force didn’t directly cause it but indirectly through some unknown mechanism determined it to happen in advance.
Now, how does one analyze or measure the plausibility of these theories? Assigning a probability seems to be a common way of assessing this, but how does one arrive at a figure? What would it mean to say that there’s a 3% chance of a demon causing the lead to fall? That demon either did or didn’t.
Let’s say the probability measure is meaningless. How else should one analyze how reasonable it is to believe that theory? How much credence should one put in a theory like that?
Furthermore, is it possible or can it be argued that some of these theories may be incoherent or in other words have zero probability? It seems difficult to disprove a theory of an invisible demon pushing down a leaf. But can one argue that this is impossible in virtue of the fact that any physical effect seems to have a physical cause and thus a “being” must atleast itself be physical and arguably detectable?