Is there such a thing as how likely it is for a hypothesis to be true given evidence as a matter of fact?

It is certainly true that we might feel strongly about other minds existing based on what we know about the world compared to say believing that John is a murderer after finding his fingerprint on a dead man’s body. We may feel more confident in the former. However, is there such a thing as it being a matter of fact that the former hypothesis is better supported than the latter? Is there a norm, given that we want our beliefs to be proportioned to reality, that suggests we should feel strongly of the former?

Note here that I am ultimately referring to the logical notion of probability and ultimately asking if it exists. I am not asking if the subjective notion of probability exists which has more to do with how you feel than some sort of epistemic norm

  • Per the well-known scientific holism Duhem-Quine thesis, it's impossible to experimentally test a scientific hypothesis in isolation, because an empirical test of the hypothesis requires one or more background knowledge... For Bayesianists certainly probability exists as inductive logic of the empiric sciences as they claimed... Aug 24 at 20:51


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