If A, then B (probability of 0.6 that this is true)

If B, then C (probability of 0.6 that this is true)


Therefore C.

I'm not sure whether C is probably true if A is true, or if the probability is 0.36 and therefore the conclusion is probably not true.

  • Check out en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic (and google "fuzzy logic" for lots more info). That should tell you how to approach such problems. – John Forkosh Nov 4 '17 at 10:56
  • 1
    This is actually simple conditional probability. If the two implications are independent, then, yes, there's a 36% chance of A implying C. However, if the implications are interdependent (as is frequently the case in real life), you'd have to know or estimate the covariance of the two implications. – barrycarter Nov 4 '17 at 17:19

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