1

If A, then B (probability of 0.6 that this is true)

If B, then C (probability of 0.6 that this is true)

A,

Therefore C.

I'm not sure whether C is probably true if A is true, or if the probability is 0.36 and therefore the conclusion is probably not true.

  • Check out en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic (and google "fuzzy logic" for lots more info). That should tell you how to approach such problems. – John Forkosh Nov 4 '17 at 10:56
  • 1
    This is actually simple conditional probability. If the two implications are independent, then, yes, there's a 36% chance of A implying C. However, if the implications are interdependent (as is frequently the case in real life), you'd have to know or estimate the covariance of the two implications. – barrycarter Nov 4 '17 at 17:19

Your Answer

By clicking "Post Your Answer", you acknowledge that you have read our updated terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy, and that your continued use of the website is subject to these policies.

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.