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Need some opinions on the Newcomb Paradox.

You’re invited to play a game, which consists of an opaque box and a transparent box. In the transparent box, there is $1000. You can see it and it will always be in there. In the opaque box, you can’t see the contents, but you’re told it either contains $1,000,000 or nothing. There are only two options in this game:

  1. Pick only the opaque box.
  2. Pick both the opaque and transparent boxes.

Now, you’re also told that there is a Being, who can predict with 99% accuracy what you will choose at this moment. And he has already made his prediction one week ago. If he predicts that you choose only the opaque box, he will put $1,000,000 in the opaque box. If he predicts that you choose both the opaque and transparent boxes, he will put nothing in the opaque box. The boxes, with or without the $1m, has been set up at the time the Being made the prediction one week ago, and since then the boxes has not been touched.

Currently, one week later, what will you choose?

Now consider the same situation again. Everything is the same, except now there is $100,000 in the transparent box. What will your answer be?

I need answers for when there is $1000, $100,000, $500,000 and $980,001 in the transparent box. Each situation is the same, except for the fact that the amount in the transparent box varies. Also state the reason for your choice in each case. You can be neutral between the two choices as well, i.e. you don’t prefer any choice, or any choice is good. And try not to calculate anything before providing an answer. Thanks.

closed as primarily opinion-based by Eliran, Conifold, christo183, Dcleve, virmaior Jan 15 at 23:34

Many good questions generate some degree of opinion based on expert experience, but answers to this question will tend to be almost entirely based on opinions, rather than facts, references, or specific expertise. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

  • Choose 1? To either get $1M/$100K/$500K/$980,001 or unravel the crook. Win-win. However, this question is asking for opinions. P.S. Well, regarding the $1K it is better to choose 2, I guess. – rus9384 Jan 14 at 18:08
  • Hi, unfortunately these types of questions are off-topic here. We do not take questions asking for users' opinions and the topic is more suitable for Puzzles SE. – Conifold Jan 14 at 21:09

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