Do probability and statistics apply to libertarian free agents? Can a libertarian free agent have a statistical tendency towards certain decisions? Would it make sense to say, for example, that there is a 80% chance that a given libertarian free agent will prefer option A over option B? In other words, can the decisions of a libertarian free agent be governed by a probability distribution? Bonus question: could this probability distribution be manipulated?
Consider the example given here: What's the "opposite" of emergence? of modelling traffic flow as a gas in pipes. No one thinks the complexity of human drivers changes. But, their freedim to act is constrained, making their actions, on average, much more predictable. Once in a while, someone may drive the wrong way down a highway, or start a road-rage incident, or be moving in a convoy, and the model won't be able to handle it.
There are many prosaic constraints on our actions, like gravity. These make us easier to predict too. But no, have no impact on libertarian free-will.
Same as my answer to the question you linked, lets consider the following situation:
- There are two options A and B
- Option A is largely preferable to B, unambiguously, and this information is available to everyone.
- For some reason, only 20% of people can use option A (supply can't match demand, access is restrained, etc)
Then it's easy to predict that roughly 20% of people will choose A.
The example is quite contrived but it illustrates how consistent trends can be observed even if people have libertarian free will: people will freely chose the best option, as long as its available or the cost for the competition to get it does not nullify its advantage.
A single agent cannot have any statistical tendencies in its behaviour. Large groups of agents can. Politics and marketing are especially interested in finding statistical tendencies in people's behaviour.
These tendencies can be manipulated through propaganda and advertizing. People's preferences can be changed to a statistically significant extent.
However, this does not eliminate free will. People will vote the new guy or buy the new product out of their own free will.
The main point of libertarian free will is that we can choose only our actions according to our preferences, but we can never choose those preferences.