Edited to make the question clearer
Nick Bostrom’s Simulation Argument can effectively be reduced to just two options:
Either (1) close to zero civilisations reach a post-human stage and run many ancestor simulations or (2) We are almost certainly now living in a simulation
My question is whether proposition 2 stays effectively the same if we replace “close to zero” in proposition 1 with just “zero”?
Surely it only takes one civilization making lots of ancestor simulations to make it almost certain that we are in one of them?