As an amateur who has interest in logic and mathematics I've been reading about the concept of different probability perceptions. I'd like to have your opinions over the subject below.
When it comes to probability assessment/comparison of two unlikely events does logic give us a single definitive and universal answer? Please take this question into account over the examples below.
The events in my question concern one astronomically unlikely and measurable hypotethical event (let's call this Event 1) and another unlikely hypotethical event for which its probability cannot be easily measured yet its nature is recognizable due to being exposed to similar ones. (lets call this Event 2, more detaled explanation follows below)
To illustrate what I mean over two examples:
Event 1 is the likelihood of having an uniform picture let's say a cat photo on a random pixel generator.
Suppose we have a random pixel generator which has 1920 x 1080 screen resolution with 24 bit colors. For each pixel on the screen we have a 1 in 10^14981179 chance of being set at the correct position to generate any image we can think of hence a cat picture. (2^24^1920 x 1080) We end up with an unfathomably low probability.
I am taking the liberty of calling Event 2 a likelihood extremely surprising for some but just usual news to many people. Take crimes for instance, unfortunately every day on the news we come across several crimes therefore we are exposed to a sample unlike Event 1. Let's take hypotethically person A is committing a serious crime i.e robbery (You can name it to increase the degree of surprisingness) and it is extremely unexpected due to its not so easily explainable nature (no obvious motivation and reason for such action, completely opposite character of the person, serious consequences etc. but note that there is nothing supernatural about the action)
For me almost anything that can occur in this world would have much higher probability than the event 1 which is absurdly improbable. Let alone the lifetime of our universe, mathematically millions of universe wouldn't be enough to see a uniform real cat picture on a random pixel generator even it shuffles the pixels every second.
However can a person find Event 2 less likely than Event 1 just because his experience and belief over the person who hypotetically commits the crime?
Do logic and maths tell us that likelihood comparison of these events are subjective therefore we cannot argue about the odds?
Is Event 2 a case which is impossible to measure its probability? Or regardless of the peculiarity of the person who hypotethically commits the crime is taking into account other similar cases (i.e same type of crime ratios over a certain period) sufficient to conclude that Event 2 has higher probability without any doubt ?
Thanks for reading so far. Lastly is there any specific branch or body of work that focuses on such probability and logic topics?