There are many statements I feel more confident in than others. For example, I would wager that almost everyone would feel more confident in the statement "The sun will rise tomorrow" than "a murder will happen in my neighborhood tomorrow". Now, if I were to ask you to assign a probability to either of those statements, you would obviously not be able to. However, you would be able to say that the first is more likely.
With examples like the above, a difference in confidence of belief seems intuitive. But what about when considering cases that both equally seem to have no evidence for them?
For example, imagine two scenarios. Assume that in both of these scenarios, there is no cheating done by humans as a matter of fact. This is important for later.
Scenario A : There are a million games being played in private. With each game, there is a 1/million chance of winning a prize. One person in one of these games wins.
Scenario B: 999,999 games are played in private. The last one is played in public in front of a massive audience. The person in the last game wins. Assume that person is a Christian.
Assume you are now tasked with figuring out whether or not the Christian God intervened in either of those scenarios. Most would find it unreasonable to think this.
However, now suppose you are asked about what your comparative degree of belief is? As in, is your confidence in (God intervening in Scenario A) greater than or less than (Go d intervening in Scenario B)? Even if both confidences are infinitesimal, many might say that scenario B should bring greater confidence given that it's possible that the Christian God might want to send some sort of sign down in public in front of an audience.
On the face of it, part of this seems ridiculous to me. After all, there is no evidence of the Christian God, much less any prior evidence of the Christian God intervening in lotteries. Given that there is no prior evidence of the Christian God, what would be the most rational state of mind?
A) Have more confidence in (God intervened in Scenario B) compared to Scenario A)
B) Have more confidence in (God intervened in Scenario A) compared to Scenario B)
C) Have equal confidence in that neither of them occurred by a Christian God