Are there exceptionless psychological laws, not probabilistic and/or not ceteris paribus? The idea that there are seems prima facie wrong and silly.
Suppose that you are running a psychology experiment in which you ask participants to choose between two separate boxes, and you make one box hugely more appealing than other. An example would be a billion dollars and instant bloody decapitation. You run this experiment many times, and no-one has yet chosen "guillotine". At what point do you suppose it is a scientific law that no-one can go freely to their death, at least when there's money involved? Would you universalise the law among all humans, even depressed hermits?
The question is kind of frivolous, but I'm insane, and keep imagining I'm out witting people intent on my destruction. After how many unsuccessful attempts is it reasonable to assume I cannot be outwitted here? Especially given that the choices my assailants make are not nearly as obviously rational as infinite riches and torture?
If there are no such laws, then in no way can I appeal to them in an explanation, in the same way as, if phrenology is false, I cannot explain my success at cards with the shape of my head.