Questions tagged [bayesian]

Bayesian reasoning is a probabilistic approach to inductive and abductive reasoning, based on Bayes' rule, that posits when one event implies a second event is likely, that given the second event occurring, that increases the likelihood of the first event.

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7answers
2k views

Is Occam's Razor a Prior?

In Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability of a hypothesis is composed of two parts: the prior, reflecting our initial belief in a certain hypothesis, and the likelihood, which represents how ...
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2answers
122 views

Is modal logic too coarse-grained? [closed]

Modal logic has "necessary" operators (true in all worlds) and "possible" operators (true in some world). Compare this to probability, where only probabilities of 1 would be "...
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0answers
67 views

Absolute confirmation of Carnap and consistency condition

In formal epistemology, consistency condition states that: An evidence E can't confirm both H and its negation, not-H. Carnap states that for the concept of absolute confirmation, the consistency ...
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1answer
43 views

Questions on “Bayes or Bust?” by Earman

In bayesian epistemology, we usually find the bayesian theorem expressed in relation with three proposition: H, hypoyesis, E, evidence, K, background knowledge. In particular, in "Bayes or Bust?&...
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4answers
114 views

Probability vs Possiblity vs gambling knowledge gap for a beginner

Probability is a difficult subject for me to grasp. I watch many religious vs atheist vs philosopher debates on YouTube where probability is often brought up, and because of my poor understanding I ...
-1
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1answer
48 views

Term for this bias kind of probability bias related to choosing the wrong reference class to calculate prior from? [closed]

Let's say that you want to calculate the prior for a woman in her 40s getting breast cancer. P(H) But instead of using the base rate from women in their 40s getting breast cancer, you use the base ...
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0answers
90 views

Guessing the past - Bayes - Throwing Dart

I'm trying to understand how Bayes formula helps us make guesses about the past. What are your thoughts about the following philosophical metaphor regarding claims about events in the past? Whenever ...
0
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0answers
24 views

Using probability theory to estimate odds in a forensic scenario?

I'm fascinated by forensic investigations and probability theory. I would like to know if I'm thinking correctly in this scenario: Let's say an elderly person with dementia has been exposed to fraud ...
2
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4answers
193 views

What is my fallacy? LSAT Reasoning Question: Titanium Ink

I have a question regarding an LSAT Reasoning question and it drives me crazy Question is: Until recently it was thought that ink used before the sixteenth century did not contain titanium. However, ...
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2answers
95 views

Using Bayes Theorem in a Court Case - dementia and testamentary capacity

I'm trying to learn how to use Bayes theorem to explain probabilities in court cases related to dementia and testamentary capacity. Let's say that we are trying to explain the probability for a person ...
1
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1answer
146 views

Does Bayes' Theorem justify rejecting an argument for the supernatural from a well-supported miracle?

Suppose you have really good evidence for a miracle. Let's say that given the evidence, the probability of the miracle having occurred is about 80%. Now, you also know that miracles can only occur if ...
3
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2answers
338 views

Logical Interpretations of Probability

According to Wikipedia's page on probability interpretations... Logical probabilities are conceived (for example in Keynes' Treatise on Probability) to be objective, logical relations between ...
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1answer
56 views

What kind of inference do we need to confirm the form of an experimental law?

Imagine scientists observe a linear correlation between two measurable quantities x and y in some type of phenomenon. They induce an experimental law: y=kx. However, the degree of precision of their ...
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5answers
302 views

Bayesian reasoning regarding perceived unlikely outcomes

So this is a Bayesian question in words first and then I'll try to put a little mathematical meat on it. Admittedly, this will eventually be about teleological reasoning, but I would like you to just ...