Questions tagged [decision-theory]
The decision-theory tag has no usage guidance.
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According to decision theory, are Bayesians who assign non zero priors to everything supposed to bet on god as per Pascal’s wager?
This is something that I have never seen addressed but it is known that many Bayesians refuse to assign a zero probability even to explanations that have no evidence so far.
But what if this proposed ...
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Are decisions based on defined probabilities more justified than ones without? [closed]
Most would agree that the probability of a dice landing on 3 is 1/6. Most would also agree that the probability of a dice landing on (5,6) is 1/3. Now, of course, if one were to ask you to bet on one ...
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Are there any well-grounded moral systems that can't be manipulated to justify whatever decision its acceptant wishes?
In §26 of A Theory of Justice (1999 ed.), Rawls writes:
A problem of choice is well-defined only if the alternatives are suitably restricted by natural laws and other constraints, and those deciding ...
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Doesn't fallibilism complexify Pascal's wager further?
We can never know whether we have accumulated all the knowledge in the world or not. This is a general statement. For example, a powerful counterargument against the contingency argument might exist ...
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How should one treat probability in taking a decision?
Suppose, I have a machine that accurately gives me the probability of any event occuring.
It's obvious what to do when
The probabilities are 0.5 and 0.5 (Do nothing)
The probabilities are 0 and 1 (...
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How to rationally decide between two events A and B having happened
If someone listed you an event A and an event B, told you that only one of those events happened today, and then asked you which one would you bet on, how should one make this bet?
Initially, I was ...
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Non-moralistic solutions to problems
In an interview for Big Think, Steven Pinker makes this claim about morality:
“Not all problems need to have a moralist solution.”
https://youtu.be/ASL4cwU_3tc
And then he gives concrete examples of ...
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The scale of decisions (Time and location) and chaos
Some ideas I am seeking thoughts on:
When I place a glass on the bench, how much was decision? I [presumably] did not decide to place it with atomic accuracy. What are the bounds of accuracy ...
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Can a decision be something other than voluntary or involuntary?
I am attempting to construct an argument against free will.
An early objection has been raised, to the very first premise:
1. Decisions may be either voluntary or involuntary.
In Human Nature: the ...
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Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)
Introduction
Approximately 1 year ago, I posted a 'proof' for the absence of free will.
The post drew a wide range of interesting and answers and comments. The most persuasive challenges related to ...
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How might a decision be defined if it is to be defined as something other than an act (a 'thing done')?
This question represents the second I have asked in relation to an argument I posted here approximately a year ago, which aims at a proof for the impossibility of free will.
It is inappropriate to ...
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Is a decision made before the rationalization?
Well, I was listening to a podcast in Spanish and a great scientist was saying that there are studies that are seeing that decision making is not as rational as we think it is. He says that the moment ...
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Is there a philosophical stance concerning justification of decisions?
When faced with dilemmas, I always felt I had no solid ground that'd justify my decision. Say I'm considering becoming a lawyer. But I obviously don't know what being lawyer is like. I can ask my ...
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reduced decision making capacity with equal consequences
If the law determines that a category of people does not have the decision-making capacity to engage in a specific activity (such as a minor carrying a gun) than does it make sense that those same ...
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Ethics, axiology, and decision theory
I'm confused about the precise terminology to use when referring to various subjects which are all related to making good choices. I know that axiology is general study of value, including moral, ...
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What bias it would be called?
When someone thinks that he is being biased towards selecting option 1 (between option 1 and option 2) and hence he switched into option 2 where his correct decision would actually be selecting option ...
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According to utilitarianism, are the only moral actions the ones that maximize utility? What about actions that increase utility, but not maximally?
Whenever I look at a definition of utilitarianism, what I see is that it only seems to prescribe actions that maximize utility.
Suppose that, for a given junction, you have a set of possible actions ...
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Books on having children
I'm at a crossroads in life where I can choose to live a life of a father or remain child-free.
I don't feel like becoming a father and want to remain child-free for the rest of my life.
Are there any ...
user42828
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Allais' paradox
Theories of practical rationality have usually taken it for granted that given a choice, people will prefer a maximum of expected utility. The Allais' paradox states that there are many situations in ...
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Maximizing expected value - "triple or nothing" on a fair bet
The "triple-or-nothing paradox" is that a game where I expect to increase my money (on average) at each stage ends up bankrupting me with probability 1 if I play long enough. However, the ...
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Choice and action
Moore highlighted the connection between asserting and believing by making note of how odd, "It's raining but I don't believe it" (as if to say "I don't believe it's raining but it is&...
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Philosophical framework for avoiding short-term strategies
In business and politics, often decision-makers make decisions that cause short-term gain, but long-term loss. So economically, this might be an unreasonable (lossy) and thus irrational process.
Is ...
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