Questions tagged [decision-theory]

The tag has no usage guidance.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
2 votes
2 answers
73 views

When do I have sufficient evidence to believe that an observed event is an occurrence of a very rare event with similar characteristics?

Suppose I am aware of a particular type of event which only occurs every 10,000 years. Call this type of event ‘A’. Suppose that I now observe an event which has many characteristics that event ‘A’ ...
A-Level Student's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
82 views

Free will as ignorance of future decisions [closed]

I find the following definition of free will appealing: An entity that has free will... always pays an exploration-exploitation tradeoff is capable of higher order thought (i.e. it has an internal ...
Turion's user avatar
  • 131
1 vote
0 answers
41 views

Are there any well-grounded moral systems that can't be manipulated to justify whatever decision its acceptant wishes?

In §26 of A Theory of Justice (1999 ed.), Rawls writes: A problem of choice is well-defined only if the alternatives are suitably restricted by natural laws and other constraints, and those deciding ...
Kristian Berry's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
132 views

Doesn't fallibilism complexify Pascal's wager further?

We can never know whether we have accumulated all the knowledge in the world or not. This is a general statement. For example, a powerful counterargument against the contingency argument might exist ...
tryingtobeastoic's user avatar
3 votes
5 answers
783 views

How should one treat probability in taking a decision?

Suppose, I have a machine that accurately gives me the probability of any event occuring. It's obvious what to do when The probabilities are 0.5 and 0.5 (Do nothing) The probabilities are 0 and 1 (...
tryingtobeastoic's user avatar
2 votes
3 answers
166 views

How to rationally decide between two events A and B having happened

If someone listed you an event A and an event B, told you that only one of those events happened today, and then asked you which one would you bet on, how should one make this bet? Initially, I was ...
user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
104 views

Non-moralistic solutions to problems

In an interview for Big Think, Steven Pinker makes this claim about morality: “Not all problems need to have a moralist solution.” https://youtu.be/ASL4cwU_3tc And then he gives concrete examples of ...
Starckman's user avatar
  • 1,510
1 vote
3 answers
82 views

The scale of decisions (Time and location) and chaos

Some ideas I am seeking thoughts on: When I place a glass on the bench, how much was decision? I [presumably] did not decide to place it with atomic accuracy. What are the bounds of accuracy ...
Jared Mccracken's user avatar
1 vote
5 answers
190 views

Can a decision be something other than voluntary or involuntary?

I am attempting to construct an argument against free will. An early objection has been raised, to the very first premise: 1. Decisions may be either voluntary or involuntary. In Human Nature: the ...
Futilitarian's user avatar
  • 4,372
1 vote
9 answers
403 views

Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)

Introduction Approximately 1 year ago, I posted a 'proof' for the absence of free will. The post drew a wide range of interesting and answers and comments. The most persuasive challenges related to ...
Futilitarian's user avatar
  • 4,372
4 votes
3 answers
211 views

How might a decision be defined if it is to be defined as something other than an act (a 'thing done')?

This question represents the second I have asked in relation to an argument I posted here approximately a year ago, which aims at a proof for the impossibility of free will. It is inappropriate to ...
Futilitarian's user avatar
  • 4,372
0 votes
0 answers
73 views

Is a decision made before the rationalization?

Well, I was listening to a podcast in Spanish and a great scientist was saying that there are studies that are seeing that decision making is not as rational as we think it is. He says that the moment ...
WiseMode's user avatar
-1 votes
1 answer
65 views

Is there a philosophical stance concerning justification of decisions?

When faced with dilemmas, I always felt I had no solid ground that'd justify my decision. Say I'm considering becoming a lawyer. But I obviously don't know what being lawyer is like. I can ask my ...
Johnny Ringo's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
33 views

reduced decision making capacity with equal consequences

If the law determines that a category of people does not have the decision-making capacity to engage in a specific activity (such as a minor carrying a gun) than does it make sense that those same ...
Shawna's user avatar
  • 13
3 votes
2 answers
314 views

Ethics, axiology, and decision theory

I'm confused about the precise terminology to use when referring to various subjects which are all related to making good choices. I know that axiology is general study of value, including moral, ...
Frank Seidl's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
135 views

What bias it would be called?

When someone thinks that he is being biased towards selecting option 1 (between option 1 and option 2) and hence he switched into option 2 where his correct decision would actually be selecting option ...
Sazzad Hissain Khan's user avatar
0 votes
2 answers
199 views

According to utilitarianism, are the only moral actions the ones that maximize utility? What about actions that increase utility, but not maximally?

Whenever I look at a definition of utilitarianism, what I see is that it only seems to prescribe actions that maximize utility. Suppose that, for a given junction, you have a set of possible actions ...
Bridgeburners's user avatar
0 votes
2 answers
150 views

Books on having children

I'm at a crossroads in life where I can choose to live a life of a father or remain child-free. I don't feel like becoming a father and want to remain child-free for the rest of my life. Are there any ...
user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
92 views

Allais' paradox

Theories of practical rationality have usually taken it for granted that given a choice, people will prefer a maximum of expected utility. The Allais' paradox states that there are many situations in ...
user43163's user avatar
1 vote
3 answers
627 views

Maximizing expected value - "triple or nothing" on a fair bet

The "triple-or-nothing paradox" is that a game where I expect to increase my money (on average) at each stage ends up bankrupting me with probability 1 if I play long enough. However, the ...
Rivers McForge's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
513 views

Choice and action

Moore highlighted the connection between asserting and believing by making note of how odd, "It's raining but I don't believe it" (as if to say "I don't believe it's raining but it is&...
Kristian Berry's user avatar
7 votes
5 answers
372 views

Philosophical framework for avoiding short-term strategies

In business and politics, often decision-makers make decisions that cause short-term gain, but long-term loss. So economically, this might be an unreasonable (lossy) and thus irrational process. Is ...
tkruse's user avatar
  • 3,816