Questions tagged [probability]
The probability tag has no usage guidance.
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Is there a name for this sort of mistake in reasoning?
There is a a 1/52 chance of getting the ace of clubs, but I know that I can only get a club, so it's 1/16. So there's 1/16 chance of getting the ace of clubs, but I know that 3/4s of the cards are ...
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What is this fallacy of unknowable probability called?
Suppose one tosses a coin five times. It lands on heads. The probability of this is 1/2^5. Now, suppose that the general rate of rigged coins for heads is 1 in 500. Because the former probability is ...
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Are our intuitions about probability not wrong after all?
Many people feel as if significant events are less probable. For example, some may feel as if the sequence of all heads on a coin is less probable than any other sequence. Or that the next lottery ...
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Implicit Models and Probability - are degrees of belief/truth/existence a complete free-for-all?
Or, to put it another way, as long as you model your statements using the grammatical framework of our modern logical idioms, is it appropriate practice to assign a probability to any utterance at all,...
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If different realities can’t have probabilities, does this mean no reality is more reasonable to believe than another?
This question is ultimately a follow up to this one
For the context of the question, assume that a metaphysical reality is a reality that can be conceived without contradiction and that these ...
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Does Bayesianism give an out for pseudoscience that it shouldn’t deserve?
In Bayesianism, every belief in a hypothesis is updated in the same way. You have a prior probability P (H). You have the probability of an observation under a hypothesis P (E|H). And then you update ...
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Does probabilistic justification exist?
Is there such a thing as how likely it is for a hypothesis to be true given evidence as a matter of fact?
It is certainly true that we might feel strongly about other minds existing based on what we ...
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Does significance testing contain a logical flaw or not?
This question was sparked from a comment Conifold had made. Link to comment here: Is probabilistic modus tollens a fallacy?
He says, and I quote, “The valid form used in significance testing is: If P ...
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Can we fully expunge the notion of probability from philosophy?
Can one reason about things without involving this concept altogether? Although the answer to this is trivially yes since the theory came about only 400 years ago, my question is moreso whether one ...
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How does one compare the probability of an outcome vs. an event?
Suppose Adam guesses a number between 1 and 10 from a random number generator. Suppose Bethany guesses a number between 1 and 100 from a random generator.
The probability of Adam guessing the correct ...
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What is the probability of events that don’t seem clearly defined?
It makes sense to talk about the probability of a series of coin tosses but what about seeing a TV on a wall, or seeing a person riding a bicycle on the street?
If one were to compare an event such as ...
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Isn’t everything absurdly improbable?
Isn’t every event by definition improbable in the sense that each event precedes an infinite series of causes that could have (theoretically atleast) been different?
We think of someone winning five ...
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How should we evaluate improbable outcomes in a probabilistic system?
Suppose I observe a highly improbable outcome while playing roulette - for example, 50 black results in a row, with a probability of 1/2^50. A mathematician would likely say the probability remains 1/...
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My scales has been accurate for the past year. I weigh something today. Should I assume that the measurement is accurate? If so, why?
My scales has been accurate for the past year. I weigh something today using my scales and it says that it weighs 1kg. Should I assume that the measurement is accurate? If so, why?
Here is the ...
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Is the SETI project built on false premises?
The SETI project analyzes signals and looks for patterns, some of which include prime number sequences that have an absurdly low improbability of occurring. It does this to detect intelligent life.
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Can the universe be fully deterministic on a macro scale but not on a micro scale?
Suppose you have a dice. The “probability” of a dice landing on 1 is defined to be 1/6. However, many say that this is a function of ignorance. If we knew everything about the initial conditions, we ...
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Should X, if there’s no evidence for X, be given a non zero probability?
There may be no evidence that a fairy is sitting on a table. Many argue that one cannot prove a fairy doesn’t exist. Thus, many decide to attach an (infinitesimal) probability to it existing, as many ...
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Doesn't fallibilism complexify Pascal's wager further?
We can never know whether we have accumulated all the knowledge in the world or not. This is a general statement. For example, a powerful counterargument against the contingency argument might exist ...
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Conceptual difference between probability vs percentages
Suppose there is a medical study which finds that having some Z gene is relate to a disease Y by a by 50%. Now, would it be correct to interpret this is as a probabilistic result?
That is, there is a ...
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How should one treat probability in taking a decision?
Suppose, I have a machine that accurately gives me the probability of any event occuring.
It's obvious what to do when
The probabilities are 0.5 and 0.5 (Do nothing)
The probabilities are 0 and 1 (...
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Is a dissimilar event less likely to happen?
Suppose an event occurs in the world that you deem to be dissimilar enough to all other events that have ever happened in the world to consider it unique. Does this imply it is less likely to happen ...
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Does the cloning of worlds, like in Many Worlds interpretation, really give the standard interpretation of probabilities?
Copenhagen-
Suppose I ask you to bet on the outcome of 100 spin measurements. And you believe in the Copenhagen interpretation for now. The odds given by the Born rule, for each experiment, are 50:50 ...
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Does this Sleeping Beauty problem show conflicting priors?
Let's say that there are three beauties; Michael, Jane, and Jill. They are put to sleep and assigned a random number from {1, 2, 3}.
If the coin lands heads then 1 is woken on Monday. If the coin ...
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How do we compare the “remarkableness” of complex events? [closed]
How do we compare the remarkableness of events? In many cases, we use probability as a tool. For example, predicting a number between 1 and 10 from a random number generator is way less impressive ...
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How can one make sense of the gambler’s fallacy if probability is ill defined?
The gambler’s fallacy suggests that in the cases of independent events such as coin tosses, the next coin toss’s probability does not depend upon previous ones.
…but there are different definitions ...
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How does Hume get rid of the problem of induction “probabilistically”?
Just because the sun rises every day, doesn’t mean it will rise tomorrow. Hume points out that the former doesn’t imply the latter.
But he also argues that it doesn’t even imply that it is probable ...
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Is there a set of fallacies attributable to statistics and probability
The interpretation and use of statistics and probability appears to contain a variety of fallacies that allow the misuse of these tools. Has anyone come across a list of fallacies specific to these ...
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Is it ever rational to stumble onto the conjunction fallacy in probability?
The conjunction fallacy is the phenomenon where many people believe that the probability of the event (A AND B) is strictly greater than the probability of the event A. It is usually thought of as an ...
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Is all of probability fundamentally subjective and unneeded as a term outright?
What is the real probability that a person will be murdered tomorrow somewhere in the world? It seems like there should be a right answer to this. In fact, most of us would bet tens of millions of ...
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Is there a term for a fallacy in which one believes something to be divinely inspired due to being improbable?
Consider the following argument:
I have been born on Earth, during a time of relative prosperity. The probability that I was born at this moment, of all moments, is very small. Therefore, this is ...
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Are there any fallacies in this argument from unique characterization?
Suppose I have millions of events that I’ve come across in my life. One of those events seem unique in the sense that no other event seems similar to it. Every other event seems to have events similar ...
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Why aren’t mundane events seen as evidence of a God? [closed]
No one thinks that them waking up at 9 am is evidence of God. No one thinks that a stone on the ground is evidence of God. No one thinks that going on a date with someone is evidence of God. No one ...
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Can a coincidence be evidence of a god?
If I experience a coincidence or a coincidence happens in the world that seems to be at extremely low odds, does this imply that God exists? If it doesn’t imply that God exists, can it at least make ...
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Can a psychic process never be proven purely through a chance experiment?
No matter what test you use to try to prove a psychic, it would involve coming up with an outcome that seems too improbable to come true. This is what the James Randi prize is based on.
For example, ...
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What is the correct level of plausibility one should have with God? [closed]
This part is confusing me for a bit and I’m having trouble finding a correct answer to it.
Say you are an atheist and are playing a poker game and you get dealt two straight Royal flushes. You ...
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Zero-one laws Model Logic, question regarding significance of domain size
Wikipedia informs me that:
Essentially (correct me if I'm wrong) the result states that as the domain of objects (domain of discourse) grows (n->inf), a static first order sentence (S) will be ...
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How does probability constitute as knowledge in justified belief theory?
This is not the classic lottery paradox. Details of that are available at Epistemic Paradoxes (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Suppose there is one lottery with 100,000 tickets and one prize. I ...
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Is probability just as subjective as morality?
Of course these are different fields yet I would wager that many consider morality to be subjective but probability to not be.
What is the correct answer to “Should I save my dog over an adult human ...
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Does single case chance actually exist?
Does chance actually exist for a single case? Even for a coin, what does it mean to say that there is a 50% chance that the next coin toss will land on heads?
Someone might say that this means that if ...
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Is there any philosophy that specifically argues against subjective probability?
When I say subjective probability, I am referring to the notion of defining a probability in relation to a credence of belief. For example, one may say that there’s a very high probability that the ...
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Is probabilistic modus tollens a fallacy?
Modus tollens takes the form of "If P, then Q. Not Q. Therefore, not P."
A probabilistic version of Modus Tollens says "If P, then Q is very improbable. Q. Therefore, P is very ...
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Jeffreys probability problem
I'm looking for feedback on the problem below from Jeffreys' probability primer. I think (a) is 0.0009 and (b) is 1 in 1000. Is this correct?
(a) In an urn with 1000 balls, one is green and the rest ...
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When exactly should we doubt that chance is at play behind a series of events? [duplicate]
My question is more general, but perhaps we can use a specific example.
Suppose I draw cards 100 times. In one of those times, I get dealt a royal flush. Let's call this scenario A.
Suppose now that I ...
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Does every possible event have non-zero probability?
Almost every human being would agree that 2 + 2 != 5. In a sense, this is a logical impossibility.
However, almost every human being would also agree that pigs can't fly. Some, however, are adamant in ...
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Is there a scientific real world content in probability beyond the math' theory of probablility?
To clarify what I am asking, it is best to make an analogy with another mathematical discipline: geometry.
In old days there was no clear separation between mathematics and real world science e.g. ...
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What does it mean for something to be "more likely"? Whether you would bet on it? Whether history suggests it to be true? Or both?
What does it mean for A to be more likely than B? For example, suppose two people are throwing darts. The first person gets a bulls eye 6 out of 10 times. The second person misses every single time by ...
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If the gambler's fallacy is real, why should our belief in propositions depend on past events?
Suppose a random person comes up to you and says "Think of a number between 1 and 10." You think of one. He guesses it correctly. You seem slightly surprised but ask him to do it again. He ...
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If a hypothesis confers a low probability on an observation, is this evidence against the hypothesis?
Intuitively, it seems yes. However, the more I think about it, it seems no, even though this goes against my intuition.
Imagine if all that the universe consisted of was one game where you won a prize ...
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What is the name of this inference where one uses uniqueness to imply very low probability and design?
Suppose there are 100 trillion humans. Only one of them happens to have three legs and let’s say he is also born in a church on the pope’s birthday.
Suppose a Christian then says, “Perhaps God wanted ...
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Why are physical and logical probabilities considered separate?
It is argued that there is a difference between these probabilities. When a dice lands on 6, it is argued that because it could have landed on 1-5 by the nature of physical laws, the probability is 1/...