Questions tagged [probability]

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Does it mean that argument from ignorance can be non-fallacious?

Particular type of "argument from ignorance" is "absence of evidence is evidence of absence." I have proof that it's in fact true. Does it mean that argument from ignorance can be right? If not - ...
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0answers
39 views

How could Occam's razor possibly be used metaphysically?

Occam's razor, or the law of parsimony, states that the simplest explanation for any given data is most likely the correct one. Some have attempted to use Occam's razor in a metaphysical sense, to ...
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2answers
77 views

Is it possible to enumerate metaphysical hypotheses?

Recently, I had an argument with someone who stated that the chance of experiencing nothing after death is extremely low. Their reasoning was that one can think of many more metaphysical realities in ...
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3answers
92 views

Does our knowledge increase or decrease when we assign 0.5 probability to our belief, after being presented with new evidence?

Suppose there was a girl who wanted to check if she was pregnant. She was relatively confident that she is NOT because contraceptives that she and her boyfriend used are very reliable. Also the ...
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1answer
38 views

Is there any correlation between Quine’s underdetermination and bayesian issues of old evidence and new theories?

Bayesianism has some faults some of them are the problem of old evidence and the issue of new theories. Are these two problems linked to Quine’s underdetermination? Or are they contrasting it? What is ...
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0answers
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The philosophy behind probabilistic events [closed]

I was thinking about probability, based on the definition a probability can assume any real value between 0 (impossible event) and 1 (the sure and absolute event). In my mind these two extremes never ...
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5answers
221 views

Observing a zero probability event

I am not a philosopher. Just curious. From a philosophical point of view, if one observes an event with zero probability, does this immediately lead to a contradiction? For example, if you have a ...
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6answers
1k views

Why are homologies evidence for evolution instead of common design?

I have seen some creationists arguing that when evolutionary biologists use homologies (anatomical or genetic) as evidence for evolution, they are committing the fallacy of affirming the consequent. ...
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2answers
100 views

Is it problematic to use indeterministic models for deterministic processes

The title basically says it all. My question is whether it is problematic that deterministic processes such as coin tosses are modelled as indeterministic random processes by Frequentist statisticians....
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0answers
80 views

Quine, subjective probability and QM

I have just read Confessions of a Confirmed Extensionalist where Quine says: “Probability? Of events? Restore extensionality (...). Of states of affairs? Treat quotationally, like de dicto. How much ...
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5answers
274 views

Is getting 100 Heads in a row from a fair coin a miracle or not?

Suppose a man continues to toss a coin until he gets 100 heads in a row. Suppose the outcomes of all tosses from the 9999901th toss to the 10 millionth toss are all heads and 100 heads in a row didn't ...
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3answers
109 views

Probability calculus and Quantum Mechanics [closed]

I am not an expert and probably this question highlights this. Anyway, is the probability calculus used in Quantum Mechanics? Does the concept of probability adopted in Quantum Mechanics satisfy the ...
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0answers
27 views

Probabilistic, indeterministic and random in QM

This is a question about terminology used in QM since I need to clarify this aspect. Is “probabilistic” a synonym of “indeterministic”? And in case they are not synonyms, what do they exactly mean? ...
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76 views

Distributions of outcomes in Quantum Mechanics

I have read an answer here about the probabilistic nature of QM and I am curious about why QM is able to predict only distributions of outcomes of an experiment. To be clearer, is QM’s inability of ...
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1answer
143 views

Why Quantum Mechanics states that nature is probabilistic? [duplicate]

I am new here and I am studying the philosophical implications of Quantum Mechanics. I read somewhere that QM and determinism are mutually exclusive and that QM involve a number of philosophers to ...
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1answer
111 views

Why cannot the following theory be refuted by logic but is rejected because of lack of empirical support?

The following statements are taken from a book: The man in the street, and also the philosopher K. Marbe, believe that after a run of seventeen heads tail becomes more probable. This argument has ...
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0answers
112 views

Bayesian epistemology and paraconsistent logics

My philosophical background I read a little on Bayesian epistemology, a while back, and I was both impressed by it and really disappointed that it was not, being a 20th century invention, embedded ...
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1answer
47 views

Under what definitions of truth and knowledge (especially Bayesian) are 'definitely knowing' and 'certain' different

Under what definitions of truth and knowledge are 'definitely knowing' and 'certain' different? Apologies if too much of a semantic question, but I think we should agree that we can have a sense of ...
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45 views

About the advantages of the propensity perspective on probability

I am wandering what are the advantages of the propensity perspective on probability. Why would it be better to explain probability in physics? Except for the fact that it solves various problems of ...
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2answers
71 views

What is the relation between the propensity interpretation of probability and probability in physics?

I would like to know what physicists think about the propensity viewpoint.If this latter one is in line with physics and especially Quantum Mechanics. Otherwise, what is the most coherent ...
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1answer
174 views

Finding desirabilities and probabilities in Jeffrey's Logic of Decision

I'm trying to solve problem 16 (Ch. 5) of Jeffrey's Logic of Decision. The problem says: Suppose that A and B are pairwise incompatible propositions, and suppose that the preference ranking is as ...
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2answers
74 views

Can we infer the rarity of sapience in the universe by looking at the rarity of the universe itself?

This is similar to the anthropic principle, where we can make certain claims by looking at the conclusion: our existence. We can see that our universe is huge and therefore rare. A smaller universe ...
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1answer
47 views

What's the difference between XY=F and XY=0 in Jeffrey's Logic of Decision?

I'm stuck solving problem 14 in Chapter 5 of Jeffrey's Logic of Decision. The first part of the problem says: Show that in presence of prob is nonnegative (prob X≥0) and prob is normalized (T=1)...
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1answer
55 views

Combining causal and identity relations

Suppose I have the causal relation C causes E, and the symmetric identity relation E is (E1 ^ E2 ^ E3), which have the following probability functions: E = bC and E = E1 * E2 * E3 where E, C, E1, E2 ...
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1answer
224 views

If our world is mathematical، Does not this increase the probability of being complex as well?

Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis, posits that reality is a mathematical structure. This mathematical nature of the universe, Tegmark argues, has important consequences for the way ...
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2answers
559 views

Hilbert's Sixth Problem: Is Kolmogorov's solution the last word?

The demand for axiomatization of probability was put forward by Hilbert at the very beginning of the past century: it was the sixth problem in his famous twenty three problems he deemed of high ...
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0answers
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Would Popper have argued that a coin toss is indeterministic?

I know that Popper was an adovcate of the propensity theory of probability, i.e. probabilities are understood as properties of sets of generating conditions. Furthermore I (think) I have read that ...
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0answers
48 views

Philosophical way to look at classical interpretation of probability

I was thinking about the classical interpretation of probability. They make the assumption that determinism obtains in the natural world. Hence, probability is epistemic. Can I see that as a form of ...
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1answer
155 views

Is there a name for the fallacy: 1/100 chance == 100 times guaranteed success?

Let's say someone is playing a computer game in which the chance for some item to drop is 1 out of 100 each time he kills a monster. The player concludes that if he kills 100 monsters then it is ...
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2answers
127 views

Question about the “catch-all” hypothesis as a response to the “bad lot” objection

In response to van Fraassen's "bad lot" objection, I have seen in multiple papers (and in the response of Lipton, from what I remember) refer to the idea of the use of a 'catch-all' hypothesis which ...
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2answers
523 views

Is it possible to know anything?

I am very sure this apple in front of me exists. I could be hallucinating however, so lets say: I am 98% certain the apple exists. I am confident that (1) is a fair assessment, but I can't really be ...
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2answers
95 views

What is frequentism?

I am studying for an exam and I ran into frequentism. Honestly, I don't understand anything about that. Is frequentism related to probability only? Why are probabilities understood as frequencies? I ...
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1answer
150 views

Does the propensity interpretation of probability rely on the principle of indifference?

According to the late Popper, among others, probability is the propensity of a set of conditions to produce certain long run relative frequencies. Therefore if we say that a certain set of conditions ...
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1answer
176 views

What is Quine's perspective on probability?

I am curious about what Quine's perspective on probability may be and if we can say that the quinean viewpoint on modality can be considered similar to his viewpoint on probability. Is probability ...
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2answers
235 views

Do premises in modus tollendo tollens arguments require greater certainty than others?

In a standard syllogism, the two premises of the argument are independent of each other, so all extrinsic warrant being equal, the argument will prove the conclusion to be probable if and only if... ...
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4answers
204 views

Drawing from a box that contains all the Natural numbers

This question is basically about the fact that there exists no uniform distribution over the set of all Natural numbers. Imagine a situation in which we would draw from an urn that contains one ball ...
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3answers
82 views

Probabilty of a coin head on nth toss after a few coind head tosses? [closed]

Suppose, you have been flipping a fair coin and got coin head 5 times in a row. Now, what is the probability of getting 6th? On the one hand, it is said that probability is 1/2. On the other hand, ...
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5answers
197 views

Questioning determinism (example)

Questioning the world's deterministic behaviour, I shall present an example which seems to defy any certainty about the recurrence of events and is (obviously) a result of faulty logic, but I would ...
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1answer
74 views

Please explain Good's solution to why we should make new observations

IJ Good's paper (1967) gives a solution to Ayer's problem on why we should make new observations. I'm trying to follow the steps in his solution. His assumptions are that: There are r mutually ...
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1answer
48 views

Is the criterium of admissibility a valid requirement for probability interpretations?

One argument that is often raised against hypothetical frequentism, as e.g. developed by Reichenbach or Von Mises is that limiting relative frequencies can violate the axiom of countable additivity (...
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5answers
223 views

Are there probability distributions that are analytically derived?

Consider the simplest example, flipping a coin. Is the relationship between the symmetry of the coin and the 50-50 probability synthetic or analytic?
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Updating Credences in the case of prolonged lack of evidence that confirms the belief

Let's assume that there is a proposition P, and we have started updating our credence about it at time t0 until some time t100. Our final credence for P ended up being .7 (at t100) . But let's say ...
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2answers
108 views

A paradox: Being ethical in a chaotic world

I want to be an ethical person, in the sense that I want to do what's best for the humanity. There might be ethical laws that if everybody stick to, the world would be a better place. But I'm a very ...
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3answers
93 views

Is it a problem for Frequentism that infinite sequences do not exist?

Hypothetical frequentists defined probability as limiting long run frequencies of hypothetical random infinite sequences, such as an infinite sequence of coin tosses. One argument against this ...
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1answer
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Frequentist notion of probability

The or rather one of the Frequentist interpretations of probability claims that the statement "The next coin toss )that is executed under conditions X) has a probability of 90% to land heads" simply ...
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21answers
18k views

Why don't fair coin tosses “add up”? Or… is “gambler's fallacy” really valid?

I have always been perplexed by a seeming paradox in probability that I'm sure has some simple, well-known explanation. We say that a "fair coin" or whatever has "no memory." At each toss the odds ...
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5answers
220 views

Can there only be one success in an infinite amount of trials?

The premise is basically that there is an infinite amount of trials and a trial could either be a success or a failure. In this trial set, is it actually possible for there to be one and only one ...
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1answer
111 views

Is the “measurement problem” really about Quantum Mechanics?

Philosophers (Popper in particular) have long debated the interpretation of probability as applied to the world. Their concerns echo those of physics (frequency, preparation, ensembles, ). It would ...
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1answer
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In a Many Worlds scenario, where everything is possible, what is the point of choice?

If the Many Worlds theory (an infinite number of alternate realities where any and all possibilities are realized) is real, and we were able to travel to alternate realities where we could see how ...
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8answers
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Interpret Bayesian probability as frequentist probability?

It is usually said that the Bayesian probability is a subjective concept, quantifying one's degree of belief in something, while the frequentist probability is the the fraction of certain outcomes ...