Questions tagged [probability]

The tag has no usage guidance.

2
votes
2answers
77 views

Is it possible to enumerate metaphysical hypotheses?

Recently, I had an argument with someone who stated that the chance of experiencing nothing after death is extremely low. Their reasoning was that one can think of many more metaphysical realities in ...
1
vote
1answer
38 views

Is there any correlation between Quine’s underdetermination and bayesian issues of old evidence and new theories?

Bayesianism has some faults some of them are the problem of old evidence and the issue of new theories. Are these two problems linked to Quine’s underdetermination? Or are they contrasting it? What is ...
2
votes
0answers
80 views

Quine, subjective probability and QM

I have just read Confessions of a Confirmed Extensionalist where Quine says: “Probability? Of events? Restore extensionality (...). Of states of affairs? Treat quotationally, like de dicto. How much ...
2
votes
0answers
48 views

Philosophical way to look at classical interpretation of probability

I was thinking about the classical interpretation of probability. They make the assumption that determinism obtains in the natural world. Hence, probability is epistemic. Can I see that as a form of ...
2
votes
0answers
138 views

How do you have to rate the probability of an existential claim?

If the prior probability of every universal hypothesis is zero how would you have to rate the probability of the statement that unicorns (at least one) exist? Probability of an event = number of ...
2
votes
0answers
68 views

Does anyone know of any essays on Adam's Thesis and Deontic Conditionals?

I'm curious if anyone knows of any essays which concerns how deontic conditionals fit with Adam's Thesis. (Adam's Thesis is the idea that the probability of an indicative conditional A > C is equal ...
2
votes
0answers
44 views

How much can investigating three nested systems help interpreting probabilistic theories?

Many attempts to interpret quantum mechanics do so by looking at three nested systems. The largest system is essentially the universe or the environment. The smallest system is the one being observed ...
1
vote
0answers
45 views

About the advantages of the propensity perspective on probability

I am wandering what are the advantages of the propensity perspective on probability. Why would it be better to explain probability in physics? Except for the fact that it solves various problems of ...
1
vote
0answers
43 views

Would Popper have argued that a coin toss is indeterministic?

I know that Popper was an adovcate of the propensity theory of probability, i.e. probabilities are understood as properties of sets of generating conditions. Furthermore I (think) I have read that ...
1
vote
0answers
82 views

Is this a valid argument (using probability and uncertainties)?

If A, then B (probability of 0.6 that this is true) If B, then C (probability of 0.6 that this is true) A, Therefore C. I'm not sure whether C is probably true if A is true, or if the probability ...
1
vote
0answers
57 views

Time dynamics of probability (from a game theoretic point of view)

Many commenters on this question about a property of a random 2x2 matrix seem to assume that there is no such thing as a random 2x2 matrix. We are talking here about a matrix with integer or rational ...
1
vote
0answers
60 views

Is it a fallacy to argue that if something is much much more likely to occur then it is in fact the case?

Is it OK to argue that what is hugely more likely to occur is in fact the case? There seems to be a class of paradox that relies on the idea that what we think is the case is in fact much much less ...
0
votes
0answers
39 views

How could Occam's razor possibly be used metaphysically?

Occam's razor, or the law of parsimony, states that the simplest explanation for any given data is most likely the correct one. Some have attempted to use Occam's razor in a metaphysical sense, to ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Probabilistic, indeterministic and random in QM

This is a question about terminology used in QM since I need to clarify this aspect. Is “probabilistic” a synonym of “indeterministic”? And in case they are not synonyms, what do they exactly mean? ...
0
votes
0answers
76 views

Distributions of outcomes in Quantum Mechanics

I have read an answer here about the probabilistic nature of QM and I am curious about why QM is able to predict only distributions of outcomes of an experiment. To be clearer, is QM’s inability of ...
0
votes
0answers
112 views

Bayesian epistemology and paraconsistent logics

My philosophical background I read a little on Bayesian epistemology, a while back, and I was both impressed by it and really disappointed that it was not, being a 20th century invention, embedded ...