Questions tagged [probability]
The probability tag has no usage guidance.
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How can one evaluate the plausibility of an eternal object?
Suppose I told you one of two things.
A) A Boeing 747 arose by chance in a scrapyard within a 24 hour period after a tornado flew through it.
B) A Boeing 747 always existed.
Suppose I then told you ...
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Is Arithmetic more Extensional than Probability?
One of the views of probability is that it should be viewed as a multi-valued logic where p(A) represents the probability that a proposition A is true.
In a discussion of this, I once read that ...
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Conceptual difference between probability vs percentages
Suppose there is a medical study which finds that having some Z gene is relate to a disease Y by a by 50%. Now, would it be correct to interpret this is as a probabilistic result?
That is, there is a ...
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Is probability a concept derived from the wavefunction? Since the p.d.f. is found by finding the modulus of the wave function in Q.M
I am studying the different probability interpretations (frequentist, bayesian etcetera) but for me it keeps bugging that since the probability density function in quantum mechanics is found by ...
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Is a probability operator on propositions symmetrical?
What I mean is: does, "It is not probable that..." = "It is probable that not..."? For example, does, "It is 50% probable that..." = "It is probable that 50%..."...
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Why don't fair coin tosses "add up"? Or... is "gambler's fallacy" really valid?
I have always been perplexed by a seeming paradox in probability that I'm sure has some simple, well-known explanation. We say that a "fair coin" or whatever has "no memory."
At each toss the odds ...
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Is there a term for the fact that it may need more information to describe a probability distribution than conveyed by the event itself?
For example, X is a random integer from 1 to 16. Now I get a piece of information: X is 3, 5, 9, or 14. This has 2 bits of information for the knowledge about X. But if the list of options is random ...
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Is not knowing whether X is true inconsistent with assigning a probability to it?
I have read that it is wise to assign a non zero probability to beliefs, and not 0 or 1. This is because probability represents certainty and you cannot be certain of anything.
xxxxxx
However, if you ...
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Does the law of large numbers explain why quantum mechanics leads to statistical regularities?
When the question of why chancy effects in quantum mechanics lead to statistical regularities is proposed, it is often answered using the law of large numbers.
When you have particles that can be ...
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Subjectivity vs. Objectivity, A Mathematical Analysis
To my knowledge, objectivity is more the merrier and subjectivity a loner. That is to say, the probability of something being objective is thought to increase with the number of observers. The whole ...
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Are there phenomena which are partially spontaneous and partially causal?
Events can be spontaneous or non spontaneous. Spontaneous is defined as occurring without apparent external cause. Non spontaneous events are causal, that is, there is cause and effect.
Suppose an ...
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Can fatalism be disproved by fate-changing magic?
In a world where magic exists, fate-spinners are people with supernatural powers that influence the chances of events happening.
Their power has been proven by countless experiments where they compare ...
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How to understand the notion of majority when comparing infinite sets?
Suppose I make the argument:
It is very unlikely that in a naturalistic universe, the constants have life sustaining values, since the majority of metaphysically possible universes do not have such ...
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Why would infinite monkeys not produce the works of Shakespeare?
Apologies if this is a very basic/obvious question. I have no training in philosophy, but have been making my way through Peter Adamson's History of Philosophy podcast.
Recently I listened to his ...
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Doesn't fallibilism complexify Pascal's wager further?
We can never know whether we have accumulated all the knowledge in the world or not. This is a general statement. For example, a powerful counterargument against the contingency argument might exist ...
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The Likelyhood Principle and Baysean Statistics
I am reading Kotzen's paper Selection Bias in Likelihood Arguments.
The author takes the following principle as a starting point:
I'm confused as to how to formalize this notion in terms of Bayesian ...
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What is the probability of events that don’t seem clearly defined?
It makes sense to talk about the probability of a series of coin tosses but what about seeing a TV on a wall, or seeing a person riding a bicycle on the street?
If one were to compare an event such as ...
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Probabilities and Certainties on the Monkey Axis: Yet more about those monkey typists
I was reading with some interest the answers and comments to this question about that familiar, weird and somewhat inhumane infinite-monkey experiment which, somehow, is still generating fresh and ...
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Does the halfer position in the Sleeping Beauty problem make for an irrational gambler?
It's my understanding that the Sleeping Beauty problem doesn't have a consensus answer, with major camps along the lines of "halfers," "thirders," and "the-question-statement-...
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How does one compare the probability of an outcome vs. an event?
Suppose Adam guesses a number between 1 and 10 from a random number generator. Suppose Bethany guesses a number between 1 and 100 from a random generator.
The probability of Adam guessing the correct ...
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Would the kind of probability involved in strong/hard free will be non-unitary?
By "unitarity" I mean that the sums of the probabilities in the given cases would be 1. Non-unitarity would, I assume (for now!), allow for final negative probabilities as well as imaginary-/...
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Is an omniscient entity self-refuting?
Consider a thought experiment involving 'something' and three individuals attempting to understand it: one person claims it is a red ball, another asserts it is a simulation, and the third insists it ...
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Carnap's method of induction
Carnap provides a general understanding of symbolic induction, given as c(h, e)=r.
c = degree of confirmation
h = hypothesis
e = evidence
r = outcome
What exactly is meant by Carnap's 'degree of ...
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Is the inverse gambler’s fallacy charge against the multiverse accurate?
A common reason for why people came up with the multiverse hypothesis was that they couldn’t fathom that a single universe, if it is all that exists, bears the constants necessary to eventually result ...
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Uncertainty and evidence
Under uncertainty, precise probability cannot be assigned, see my other question: How valid is assignment of probabilities when evidence is totally lacking, as in Pascal's Wager? In this case, either ...
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Implicit Models and Probability - are degrees of belief/truth/existence a complete free-for-all?
Or, to put it another way, as long as you model your statements using the grammatical framework of our modern logical idioms, is it appropriate practice to assign a probability to any utterance at all,...
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Are our intuitions about probability not wrong after all?
Many people feel as if significant events are less probable. For example, some may feel as if the sequence of all heads on a coin is less probable than any other sequence. Or that the next lottery ...
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Does Bayesianism give an out for pseudoscience that it shouldn’t deserve?
In Bayesianism, every belief in a hypothesis is updated in the same way. You have a prior probability P (H). You have the probability of an observation under a hypothesis P (E|H). And then you update ...
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If different realities can’t have probabilities, does this mean no reality is more reasonable to believe than another?
This question is ultimately a follow up to this one
For the context of the question, assume that a metaphysical reality is a reality that can be conceived without contradiction and that these ...
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Does Bayesianism not discriminate against ad hoc hypotheses?
Bayesianism doesn't seem to discriminate against ad hoc hypotheses.
A simple example illustrates this.
Let's assume a person tosses a coin 20 straight times and it lands on heads. They, ad hoc, start ...
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How could Occam's razor possibly be used metaphysically?
Occam's razor, or the law of parsimony, states that the simplest explanation for any given data is most likely the correct one.
Some have attempted to use Occam's razor in a metaphysical sense, to ...
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Does significance testing contain a logical flaw or not?
This question was sparked from a comment Conifold had made. Link to comment here: Is probabilistic modus tollens a fallacy?
He says, and I quote, “The valid form used in significance testing is: If P ...
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How should we evaluate improbable outcomes in a probabilistic system?
Suppose I observe a highly improbable outcome while playing roulette - for example, 50 black results in a row, with a probability of 1/2^50. A mathematician would likely say the probability remains 1/...
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How does one argue for the rationality of assigning subjective probabilities in the context of Pascal’s Wager?
As a follow up from this discussion on a previous question I asked, I’m wondering how defenders of Pascal’s Wager/“strong” atheists who hold that the probability of God’s existence is zero justify ...
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Does probabilistic justification exist?
Is there such a thing as how likely it is for a hypothesis to be true given evidence as a matter of fact?
It is certainly true that we might feel strongly about other minds existing based on what we ...
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Can we fully expunge the notion of probability from philosophy?
Can one reason about things without involving this concept altogether? Although the answer to this is trivially yes since the theory came about only 400 years ago, my question is moreso whether one ...
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Is probability just as subjective as morality?
Of course these are different fields yet I would wager that many consider morality to be subjective but probability to not be.
What is the correct answer to “Should I save my dog over an adult human ...
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Isn’t everything absurdly improbable?
Isn’t every event by definition improbable in the sense that each event precedes an infinite series of causes that could have (theoretically atleast) been different?
We think of someone winning five ...
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My scales has been accurate for the past year. I weigh something today. Should I assume that the measurement is accurate? If so, why?
My scales has been accurate for the past year. I weigh something today using my scales and it says that it weighs 1kg. Should I assume that the measurement is accurate? If so, why?
Here is the ...
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If the gambler's fallacy is real, why should our belief in propositions depend on past events?
Suppose a random person comes up to you and says "Think of a number between 1 and 10." You think of one. He guesses it correctly. You seem slightly surprised but ask him to do it again. He ...
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How do you decide between general and specific evidence in reasoning?
Suppose Jane wins the lottery three times. A person could say "well the chances of some person winning the lottery three times in the entire history of the world is expected by chance. No need to ...
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How improbable does an event have to be before we can say it didn't happen by chance?
What is the probability threshold below which we can confidently say that a blind process did not create the supposed event?
For example, how many heads in a row would we need to say that it did not ...
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Is the SETI project built on false premises?
The SETI project analyzes signals and looks for patterns, some of which include prime number sequences that have an absurdly low improbability of occurring. It does this to detect intelligent life.
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Should X, if there’s no evidence for X, be given a non zero probability?
There may be no evidence that a fairy is sitting on a table. Many argue that one cannot prove a fairy doesn’t exist. Thus, many decide to attach an (infinitesimal) probability to it existing, as many ...
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Can the universe be fully deterministic on a macro scale but not on a micro scale?
Suppose you have a dice. The “probability” of a dice landing on 1 is defined to be 1/6. However, many say that this is a function of ignorance. If we knew everything about the initial conditions, we ...
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How can one calculate the probability of being mistaken?
Often times, one comes across an event that seems to contradict a model of reality in your head. Say, through observing an improbable yet meaningful coincidence. Say one investigates the event and ...
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Is there a term for a fallacy in which one believes something to be divinely inspired due to being improbable?
Consider the following argument:
I have been born on Earth, during a time of relative prosperity. The probability that I was born at this moment, of all moments, is very small. Therefore, this is ...
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Is there any correlation between Quine’s underdetermination and bayesian issues of old evidence and new theories?
Bayesianism has some faults some of which involve the problem of old evidence and the issue of new theories. Are these two problems linked to Quine’s underdetermination? Or are they contrasting it? ...
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Interpret Bayesian probability as frequentist probability?
It is usually said that the Bayesian probability is a subjective concept, quantifying one's degree of belief in something, while the frequentist probability is the the fraction of certain outcomes ...
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How does Hume get rid of the problem of induction “probabilistically”?
Just because the sun rises every day, doesn’t mean it will rise tomorrow. Hume points out that the former doesn’t imply the latter.
But he also argues that it doesn’t even imply that it is probable ...
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