Questions tagged [probability]

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2answers
600 views

Deterministic or stochastic universe?

Just a little bit before my graduation from computer science, I attended a course about computational intelligence, and my professor then challenged us to debate on whether the world/universe follows ...
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1answer
65 views

Carnap's method of induction

Carnap provides a general understanding of symbolic induction, given as c(h, e)=r. c = degree of confirmation h = hypothesis e = evidence r = outcome What exactly is meant by Carnap's 'degree of ...
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3answers
111 views

Do probability and statistics apply to the decisions of an agent with libertarian free will?

Do probability and statistics apply to libertarian free agents? Can a libertarian free agent have a statistical tendency towards certain decisions? Would it make sense to say, for example, that there ...
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3answers
357 views

Does everything have a infinitesimal amount of uncertainty?

Suppose a soldier has to fight unarmed against 200 opponents. Most people would say that the soldier is certainly dead. However, quantum mechanics dictates that there is always some degree of ...
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2answers
94 views

Does many-worlds rule out trial and error?

Suppose that the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics were true. Would that rule out trial and error as something that actually happens in reality? Let's take biology as a case study. ...
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1answer
110 views

How does Consequentialism handle uncertainty?

E.g. Suppose you are a Consequentialist faced with a variation of the trolley car problem. Your options are to save five people with a 20% likelihood or one person with a 100% likelihood. Which option,...
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4answers
246 views

Is it possible to enumerate metaphysical hypotheses?

Recently, I had an argument with someone who stated that the chance of experiencing nothing after death is extremely low. Their reasoning was that one can think of many more metaphysical realities in ...
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0answers
41 views

In the real world, is probability discrete or continuous?

I am not quite sure whether this belongs on math SE. Anyway, my question is this. In math, probability can theoretically be any real number between 0 and 1 inclusive. But what about in the real world? ...
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5answers
397 views

How can statements of probability be verified?

Suppose I said, "There is a 50% chance of it raining tomorrow", and someone else said, "No, it is actually 60%". How can we know which person, if either, is correct? What I am ...
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2answers
165 views

Is defining the concept of Probability still an open problem in the Philosophy of Science?

There exist several interpretations of the concept of Probability: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations Being the assumption of Repeatability an important difference between them. ...
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2answers
232 views

Shouldn't there be a determinism behind all random processes, so even the ones seen in quantum mechanics?

Behind all random processes lay deterministic principles. Behind the throwing of a dice there are deterministic processes at work that fix the outcome. Our lack of knowledge is due to the chances in ...
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5answers
1k views

Probabilistic prediction (quantum mechanics) - what is the meaning of such a prediction and how do you falsify it?

Suppose there's a hypothetical quantum physics experiment. There are 2 possible outcomes to this experiment A or B. QM predicts that the probability of each is 50%. Firstly, what is the meaning of ...
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1answer
76 views

How are objective probabilites and statistics (frequency in the world) of groups related to individual cases?

I'm a bit confused about why frequentist measures of probability based on groups are relevant to individual cases. It seems that moving from the group to the individual is somehow a violation of the ...
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1answer
51 views

How do we interpret the death rate (probability) or admission rate and apply it to ourselves?

(I also asked this question on Mathematics StackExchange. But since this question is more about the thinking and reasoning process, it is better to post it here, I think.) These were very intuitive ...
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1answer
78 views

Is there any correlation between Quine’s underdetermination and bayesian issues of old evidence and new theories?

Bayesianism has some faults some of them are the problem of old evidence and the issue of new theories. Are these two problems linked to Quine’s underdetermination? Or are they contrasting it? What is ...
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0answers
49 views

Cloning order paradox

Suppose there is a cloning device that could make exact copies of humans. It makes one person into two with the exactly same memory and other properties, with equal status and no one defined to be the ...
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22answers
20k views

Why don't fair coin tosses "add up"? Or... is "gambler's fallacy" really valid?

I have always been perplexed by a seeming paradox in probability that I'm sure has some simple, well-known explanation. We say that a "fair coin" or whatever has "no memory." At each toss the odds ...
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3answers
179 views

Maximizing expected value - "triple or nothing" on a fair bet

The "triple-or-nothing paradox" is that a game where I expect to increase my money (on average) at each stage ends up bankrupting me with probability 1 if I play long enough. However, the ...
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5answers
211 views

Winning Percentage Fallacy

Consider a combat tournament with a large number (sufficiently large that small sample size is not a problem) of combatants, in which each match is zero-sum and has a winner (there are no ties). The ...
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1answer
45 views

Questions on "Bayes or Bust?" by Earman

In bayesian epistemology, we usually find the bayesian theorem expressed in relation with three proposition: H, hypoyesis, E, evidence, K, background knowledge. In particular, in "Bayes or Bust?&...
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4answers
123 views

Probability vs Possiblity vs gambling knowledge gap for a beginner

Probability is a difficult subject for me to grasp. I watch many religious vs atheist vs philosopher debates on YouTube where probability is often brought up, and because of my poor understanding I ...
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2answers
96 views

Using Bayes Theorem in a Court Case - dementia and testamentary capacity

I'm trying to learn how to use Bayes theorem to explain probabilities in court cases related to dementia and testamentary capacity. Let's say that we are trying to explain the probability for a person ...
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9answers
3k views

Interpret Bayesian probability as frequentist probability?

It is usually said that the Bayesian probability is a subjective concept, quantifying one's degree of belief in something, while the frequentist probability is the the fraction of certain outcomes ...
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1answer
37 views

How do you estimate a witness reliability who claims to have seen a miracle? Question about miss-rate neglect fallacy [closed]

I'm interested in knowing how you would estimate witness reliability who claims to have seen a miracle in the following case: Linda says that she met with Santa Claus yesterday. She promises you that ...
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1answer
50 views

Term for this bias kind of probability bias related to choosing the wrong reference class to calculate prior from? [closed]

Let's say that you want to calculate the prior for a woman in her 40s getting breast cancer. P(H) But instead of using the base rate from women in their 40s getting breast cancer, you use the base ...
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1answer
35 views

You found a strange instrument you know nothing about and will have to use it to predict H [closed]

Let's say you're trying to predict the probability of (H |E) P(H) = 0,01 Let's say that you've found an instrument lying on the floor with a label on it saying "To be used to measure H). You know ...
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1answer
35 views

How to make sense of " I know that p but I could be wrong as to p"? ( Faillibilism)

There is a well known modal fallacy regarding knowledge which says that if some subject s knows that p, then p cannot be false, and therefore , p is a necessarily true proposition. Source : [ by ...
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0answers
90 views

Guessing the past - Bayes - Throwing Dart

I'm trying to understand how Bayes formula helps us make guesses about the past. What are your thoughts about the following philosophical metaphor regarding claims about events in the past? Whenever ...
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0answers
29 views

Discussion: Should or should not P(Lying | Human) be above or equal to 0,5?

Condition: An human called X, in this specific case, according to game theory will win the most money and lose the least if applying a lying strategy about event Y happening. If he tells the truth ...
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1answer
78 views

Low probability events and witness testimony

I experienced a low probability event yesterday. It has according to frequencists 5% chance of occuring. However, you know there is a 25% chance that I'm mistaken about experiencing the event at all ...
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9answers
2k views

Is getting 100 Heads in a row from a fair coin a miracle or not?

Suppose a man continues to toss a coin until he gets 100 heads in a row. Suppose the outcomes of all tosses from the 9999901th toss to the 10 millionth toss are all heads and 100 heads in a row didn't ...
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0answers
24 views

Using probability theory to estimate odds in a forensic scenario?

I'm fascinated by forensic investigations and probability theory. I would like to know if I'm thinking correctly in this scenario: Let's say an elderly person with dementia has been exposed to fraud ...
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2answers
189 views

How would an philosopher and scientist solve the following kidnapping - scenario?

I would like to hear your opinion as philosophers and scientists regarding how you would solve the problem of proof in the following scenario: "Plato" who has dementia and a damaged left ...
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2answers
257 views

Logical fallacy: Person argues with wrong probability of event, without considering similar events

I know that this is a common error in argumentation that people make, but I don't know if there is a term for it. It's when people argue from an event being remarkable because of its low probability, ...
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2answers
102 views

A priori vs false witness statement

John tells Linda the following false statement to trick her into believing that UFO:s exist. Yesterday when I was walking in the forest I saw a UFO for 5 seconds and then it disappeared, you have to ...
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0answers
22 views

Does the Multiverse Undermine argumente based on statistical inference? [duplicate]

In the last fifty years, eminent physicists have discovered that the physical parameters of our universe are fine tuned, which means that a slight change in these parameters would render life as we ...
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1answer
47 views

two problems with the (log) likelihood measure of evidentiary support [closed]

This is basically a reference request. I'm looking for literature on the two types of counter-example to the log likelihood measure of support for hypotheses which I discuss below. First some ...
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1answer
153 views

Does Bayes' Theorem justify rejecting an argument for the supernatural from a well-supported miracle?

Suppose you have really good evidence for a miracle. Let's say that given the evidence, the probability of the miracle having occurred is about 80%. Now, you also know that miracles can only occur if ...
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0answers
46 views

How would a monistic approach account for these categories of probabilities?

Donald Gillies, in his book "Philosophical Theories of Probability," draws a distinction between monistic views and dualistic views of probability, the latter of which, at least in his ...
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2answers
349 views

Logical Interpretations of Probability

According to Wikipedia's page on probability interpretations... Logical probabilities are conceived (for example in Keynes' Treatise on Probability) to be objective, logical relations between ...
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1answer
223 views

Is probability in classical physics always bayesian?

I am wondering how probability is intended in classical physics. I have read a number of articles where it is said that probability in classical physics is generally intended in subjectivist terms as ...
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4answers
216 views

Does the anthropic principle disprove the existence of aliens? [closed]

The anthropic principle states that I'm a typical sapient-level observer. What this implies is that if there are two groups of sapient-level observers, then I am most likely to find myself in the ...
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9answers
2k views

What is unique about the quantum state of superposition?

In the state of quantum superposition, as most famously illustrated by Schrodinger's Cat, we have a well-defined set of probabilistic outcomes that is not determined until observed. The cat is then ...
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2answers
563 views

In quantum physics, does zero probability imply impossibility?

Suppose I have a particle whose quantum state is known to be exactly spin-up along the z-axis. Then suppose I measure its spin along the z-axis. Quantum mechanics (QM) states that the probability of ...
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2answers
136 views

Why do people argue in favor of IQs, while then encouraging people (of any IQ) to use hard work to obtain the same successes?

At the same time people will say (science included) that IQ is a very important thing -- while at the same time saying that people with lower IQs can do things that people with higher IQs can -- while ...
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2answers
190 views

What is the procentual probability that we live in the objective reality independent of our consciousness rather than in some virtual reality?

I am aware than it is impossible to prove anything in real life. Therefore we can't prove that the picture of the reality we are percieving through our senses is a subjective picture of an objective ...
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5answers
303 views

Bayesian reasoning regarding perceived unlikely outcomes

So this is a Bayesian question in words first and then I'll try to put a little mathematical meat on it. Admittedly, this will eventually be about teleological reasoning, but I would like you to just ...
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2answers
304 views

Is Quantum Bayesianism a viable solution to interpretational problems of quantum mechanics? [closed]

I noticed that Quantum Bayesianism (Qbism) seems to solve a number of issues in QM like non-locality, decoherence and the measurement problem. But I am not sure if physicists and philosophers would ...
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4answers
944 views

Does Probability come before Scientific Method?

I am interested in the following epistemological problem. Usually, Probability is seen as a mathematical theory that we use to describe the physical world. Precisely, following the Scientific Method ...
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2answers
276 views

Is there a branch of philosophy/science that deals with making decision under uncertainty/imperfect information of a complex system?

I am curious whether there are well-established works of philosophical/scientific knowledge relating to ways to deal with an uncertain situation to produce desired outcome(s). I am asking this ...