# Questions tagged [probability]

The tag has no usage guidance.

42 questions with no upvoted or accepted answers
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
127 views

### Is there a term for the fact that it may need more information to describe a probability distribution than conveyed by the event itself?

For example, X is a random integer from 1 to 16. Now I get a piece of information: X is 3, 5, 9, or 14. This has 2 bits of information for the knowledge about X. But if the list of options is random ...
• 329
156 views

### Doesn't fallibilism complexify Pascal's wager further?

We can never know whether we have accumulated all the knowledge in the world or not. This is a general statement. For example, a powerful counterargument against the contingency argument might exist ...
137 views

### Are epistemic probability and empirical probability comparable?

Let me illustrate this question with an example. Imagine you were to compare your credence or your belief of you winning the lottery twice with your belief in the devil’s existence. Some argue that me ...
57 views

### How would a monistic approach account for these categories of probabilities?

Donald Gillies, in his book "Philosophical Theories of Probability," draws a distinction between monistic views and dualistic views of probability, the latter of which, at least in his ...
196 views

### Is this general argument against immortality valid?

I found the following argument here (although the paper is about a different topic): A General Argument Against Immortality: The method of Theory Confirmation can be applied to the question of ...
65 views

### Philosophical way to look at classical interpretation of probability

I was thinking about the classical interpretation of probability. They make the assumption that determinism obtains in the natural world. Hence, probability is epistemic. Can I see that as a form of ...
• 21
175 views

### How do you have to rate the probability of an existential claim?

If the prior probability of every universal hypothesis is zero how would you have to rate the probability of the statement that unicorns (at least one) exist? Probability of an event = number of ...
79 views

### Does anyone know of any essays on Adam's Thesis and Deontic Conditionals?

I'm curious if anyone knows of any essays which concerns how deontic conditionals fit with Adam's Thesis. (Adam's Thesis is the idea that the probability of an indicative conditional A > C is equal ...
• 429
67 views

### How much can investigating three nested systems help interpreting probabilistic theories?

Many attempts to interpret quantum mechanics do so by looking at three nested systems. The largest system is essentially the universe or the environment. The smallest system is the one being observed ...
• 4,019
1 vote
95 views

### Is Arithmetic more Extensional than Probability?

One of the views of probability is that it should be viewed as a multi-valued logic where p(A) represents the probability that a proposition A is true. In a discussion of this, I once read that ...
• 10.9k
1 vote
64 views

### Probabilities and Certainties on the Monkey Axis: Yet more about those monkey typists

I was reading with some interest the answers and comments to this question about that familiar, weird and somewhat inhumane infinite-monkey experiment which, somehow, is still generating fresh and ...
1 vote
40 views

### Zero-one laws Model Logic, question regarding significance of domain size

Wikipedia informs me that: Essentially (correct me if I'm wrong) the result states that as the domain of objects (domain of discourse) grows (n->inf), a static first order sentence (S) will be ...
• 79
1 vote
98 views

### Bayesian argument for combining extraordinary claims

This is an improved version of Backwards Bayesian argument for alien visitation? It is said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and therefore this criterion is applied to every ...
1 vote
99 views

### Inductive reasoning and probability: probability of the conclusion versus probability of the supporting relation?

It is often admitted that inductive reasoning has something to do with probability. While in a ( valid) deduction the premises necessarily imply the conclusion, in an inductive reasoning the premises ...
1 vote
192 views

### Two questions on the principle of indifference

(Sorry if it is not within the format of the site to ask two questions like this, please tell me if I should break it up into two separate questions) The principle of indifference states that ...
• 355
1 vote
103 views

### David Lewis and probability

I have read a general overview on David Lewis in order to have an idea of his philosophical perspective and in particular about humean supervenience. I am wondering how Lewis considers probability in ...
1 vote
52 views

I am wandering what are the advantages of the propensity perspective on probability. Why would it be better to explain probability in physics? Except for the fact that it solves various problems of ...
• 121
1 vote
73 views

### Would Popper have argued that a coin toss is indeterministic?

I know that Popper was an adovcate of the propensity theory of probability, i.e. probabilities are understood as properties of sets of generating conditions. Furthermore I (think) I have read that ...
• 360
1 vote
89 views

### Is this a valid argument (using probability and uncertainties)?

If A, then B (probability of 0.6 that this is true) If B, then C (probability of 0.6 that this is true) A, Therefore C. I'm not sure whether C is probably true if A is true, or if the probability ...
• 225
1 vote
71 views

### Time dynamics of probability (from a game theoretic point of view)

Many commenters on this question about a property of a random 2x2 matrix seem to assume that there is no such thing as a random 2x2 matrix. We are talking here about a matrix with integer or rational ...
• 4,019
1 vote
72 views

### Is it a fallacy to argue that if something is much much more likely to occur then it is in fact the case?

Is it OK to argue that what is hugely more likely to occur is in fact the case? There seems to be a class of paradox that relies on the idea that what we think is the case is in fact much much less ...
• 185
1 vote
679 views

### Is an omniscient entity self-refuting?

Consider a thought experiment involving 'something' and three individuals attempting to understand it: one person claims it is a red ball, another asserts it is a simulation, and the third insists it ...
1 vote
125 views

### Quantum vs classic dangerous decisions under many-worlds interpretation

Consider the following scenario: You are a military truck driver tasked with delivering supplies. The destination is close to enemy territory. To not be predictable, each truck randomizes the route ...
• 443
29 views

### "Entails" in probability propositions: Why are these claims made by the author true?

I've just began reading "Probability: A Philosophical Introduction" by D.H. Mellor. In chapter 1, section 8, he states: ... the epistemic probability of a proposition conditional on ...
64 views

### Supposing my death is not an intrinsic or extrinsic good, should I never engage in acts that will certainly or near certainly result in my death?

Supposing my death is not an intrinsic or extrinsic good, should I never engage in acts that will certainly or near certainly result in my death? It's not obviously a trivial inference, but it seems ...
• 1,673
120 views

### Is there a set theory which implies the interval [0, 1] but no more?

A deductive system (as a collection of judgments and rules of inference) can be used to describe something commonly called a “set theory”. We can imagine a priori there are certain properties we would ...
• 2,431
35 views

### Does probabilistic justification exist?

Is there such a thing as how likely it is for a hypothesis to be true given evidence as a matter of fact? It is certainly true that we might feel strongly about other minds existing based on what we ...
73 views

### Does the cloning of worlds, like in Many Worlds interpretation, really give the standard interpretation of probabilities?

Copenhagen- Suppose I ask you to bet on the outcome of 100 spin measurements. And you believe in the Copenhagen interpretation for now. The odds given by the Born rule, for each experiment, are 50:50 ...
• 633
41 views

### Jeffreys probability problem

I'm looking for feedback on the problem below from Jeffreys' probability primer. I think (a) is 0.0009 and (b) is 1 in 1000. Is this correct? (a) In an urn with 1000 balls, one is green and the rest ...
• 9
36 views

### Voting and evidential expected utility

Say there is a large election between two candidates 𝐴 and 𝐵. A winning would have a utility value of 100, B winning would have utility value 0. Going out and voting would add a (sub)value of -1 ...
• 11
41 views

### A "combining logic" moment in Kant

In "Ethical Theories and Moral Guidance", Pekka Väyrynen goes over proposals and arguments concerning the knowability of moral claims. Kant's relevant proposal (in the second Critique) is: ...
• 16.6k
53 views

### What type of subjective probability is adopted by Quine?

I am wondering what type of subjective probability is adopted by Quine. Is Quine sympathetic towards de Finetti's probability or Bayes'ones?
57 views

### Does Aumann's agreement theorem extend to moral propositions?

Aumann's agreement theorem says: two perfectly rational agents with the same prior estimate of an event's probability and common knowledge of one another's posterior estimates cannot come to ...
• 14.7k
313 views

Suppose there is a cloning device that could make exact copies of humans. It makes one person into two with the exactly same memory and other properties, with equal status and no one defined to be the ...
• 329
94 views

### Guessing the past - Bayes - Throwing Dart

I'm trying to understand how Bayes formula helps us make guesses about the past. What are your thoughts about the following philosophical metaphor regarding claims about events in the past? Whenever ...
31 views

### Discussion: Should or should not P(Lying | Human) be above or equal to 0,5?

Condition: An human called X, in this specific case, according to game theory will win the most money and lose the least if applying a lying strategy about event Y happening. If he tells the truth ...
67 views

### Humean supervenience and Quine

I am wondering if Quine would adopt the Lewis' Humean supervenience theory to make sense of probability. Quine is a subjectivist about probability (even though regarding probability in QM he thinks ...
• 31
38 views

### Probabilistic, indeterministic and random in QM

This is a question about terminology used in QM since I need to clarify this aspect. Is “probabilistic” a synonym of “indeterministic”? And in case they are not synonyms, what do they exactly mean? ...
81 views

### Distributions of outcomes in Quantum Mechanics

I have read an answer here about the probabilistic nature of QM and I am curious about why QM is able to predict only distributions of outcomes of an experiment. To be clearer, is QM’s inability of ...
• 21
301 views

### Is the inverse gambler’s fallacy charge against the multiverse accurate?

A common reason for why people came up with the multiverse hypothesis was that they couldn’t fathom that a single universe, if it is all that exists, bears the constants necessary to eventually result ...
62 views

### How to make sense of " I know that p but I could be wrong as to p"? ( Faillibilism)

There is a well known modal fallacy regarding knowledge which says that if some subject s knows that p, then p cannot be false, and therefore , p is a necessarily true proposition. Source : [ by ...
223 views

### How would an philosopher and scientist solve the following kidnapping - scenario?

I would like to hear your opinion as philosophers and scientists regarding how you would solve the problem of proof in the following scenario: "Plato" who has dementia and a damaged left ...