Questions tagged [probability]
The probability tag has no usage guidance.
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Doesn't fallibilism complexify Pascal's wager further?
We can never know whether we have accumulated all the knowledge in the world or not. This is a general statement. For example, a powerful counterargument against the contingency argument might exist ...
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Have the indispensability arguments been examined for probability theory?
Indispensability arguments are widely known in the philosophy of mathematics, the idea being (roughly) that we should commit to the existence of those mathematical entities that are indispensable for ...
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How should we evaluate improbable outcomes in a probabilistic system?
Suppose I observe a highly improbable outcome while playing roulette - for example, 50 black results in a row, with a probability of 1/2^50. A mathematician would likely say the probability remains 1/...
user66933
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How would a monistic approach account for these categories of probabilities?
Donald Gillies, in his book "Philosophical Theories of Probability," draws a distinction between monistic views and dualistic views of probability, the latter of which, at least in his ...
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Is this general argument against immortality valid?
I found the following argument here (although the paper is about a different topic):
A General Argument Against Immortality:
The method of Theory Confirmation can be applied to the question of ...
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Philosophical way to look at classical interpretation of probability
I was thinking about the classical interpretation of probability. They make the assumption that determinism obtains in the natural world. Hence, probability is epistemic. Can I see that as a form of ...
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How do you have to rate the probability of an existential claim?
If the prior probability of every universal hypothesis is zero how would you have to rate the probability of the statement that unicorns (at least one) exist?
Probability of an event = number of ...
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Does anyone know of any essays on Adam's Thesis and Deontic Conditionals?
I'm curious if anyone knows of any essays which concerns how deontic conditionals fit with Adam's Thesis. (Adam's Thesis is the idea that the probability of an indicative conditional A > C is equal ...
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How much can investigating three nested systems help interpreting probabilistic theories?
Many attempts to interpret quantum mechanics do so by looking at three nested systems. The largest system is essentially the universe or the environment. The smallest system is the one being observed ...
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Probabilities and Certainties on the Monkey Axis: Yet more about those monkey typists
I was reading with some interest the answers and comments to this question about that familiar, weird and somewhat inhumane infinite-monkey experiment which, somehow, is still generating fresh and ...
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Is there a term for the fact that it may need more information to describe a probability distribution than conveyed by the event itself?
For example, X is a random integer from 1 to 16. Now I get a piece of information: X is 3, 5, 9, or 14. This has 2 bits of information for the knowledge about X. But if the list of options is random ...
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Are our intuitions about probability not wrong after all?
Many people feel as if significant events are less probable. For example, some may feel as if the sequence of all heads on a coin is less probable than any other sequence. Or that the next lottery ...
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Is similarity an objective property? Should other similar events be taken into account when evaluating the probability of an event?
Suppose a rare event occurs. For example, suppose someone wins two lotteries in a year. This may have happened because it was rigged or because of chance. The defender of the chance hypothesis could ...
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How does one figure out what probability is most relevant when deciding how probable something is?
Say Juliet wins two state lotteries back to back in 1999.
A person who thinks it was rigged might say "Well, the probability of her winning two state lotteries back to back is infinitesimally low....
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Bayesian argument for combining extraordinary claims
This is an improved version of Backwards Bayesian argument for alien visitation?
It is said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and therefore this criterion is applied to every ...
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Inductive reasoning and probability: probability of the conclusion versus probability of the supporting relation?
It is often admitted that inductive reasoning has something to do with probability.
While in a ( valid) deduction the premises necessarily imply the conclusion, in an inductive reasoning the premises ...
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Two questions on the principle of indifference
(Sorry if it is not within the format of the site to ask two questions like this, please tell me if I should break it up into two separate questions)
The principle of indifference states that ...
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David Lewis and probability
I have read a general overview on David Lewis in order to have an idea of his philosophical perspective and in particular about humean supervenience. I am wondering how Lewis considers probability in ...
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About the advantages of the propensity perspective on probability
I am wandering what are the advantages of the propensity perspective on probability. Why would it be better to explain probability in physics? Except for the fact that it solves various problems of ...
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Would Popper have argued that a coin toss is indeterministic?
I know that Popper was an adovcate of the propensity theory of probability, i.e. probabilities are understood as properties of sets of generating conditions. Furthermore I (think) I have read that ...
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Is this a valid argument (using probability and uncertainties)?
If A, then B (probability of 0.6 that this is true)
If B, then C (probability of 0.6 that this is true)
A,
Therefore C.
I'm not sure whether C is probably true if A is true, or if the probability ...
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Time dynamics of probability (from a game theoretic point of view)
Many commenters on this question about a property of a random 2x2 matrix seem to assume that there is no such thing as a random 2x2 matrix. We are talking here about a matrix with integer or rational ...
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Is it a fallacy to argue that if something is much much more likely to occur then it is in fact the case?
Is it OK to argue that what is hugely more likely to occur is in fact the case?
There seems to be a class of paradox that relies on the idea that what we think is the case is in fact much much less ...
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Quantum vs classic dangerous decisions under many-worlds interpretation
Consider the following scenario:
You are a military truck driver tasked with delivering supplies.
The destination is close to enemy territory.
To not be predictable, each truck randomizes the route ...
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Is Arithmetic more Extensional than Probability?
One of the views of probability is that it should be viewed as a multi-valued logic where p(A) represents the probability that a proposition A is true.
In a discussion of this, I once read that ...
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How can one evaluate the plausibility of an eternal object?
Suppose I told you one of two things.
A) A Boeing 747 arose by chance in a scrapyard within a 24 hour period after a tornado flew through it.
B) A Boeing 747 always existed.
Suppose I then told you ...
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Does probabilistic justification exist?
Is there such a thing as how likely it is for a hypothesis to be true given evidence as a matter of fact?
It is certainly true that we might feel strongly about other minds existing based on what we ...
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How does one compare the probability of an outcome vs. an event?
Suppose Adam guesses a number between 1 and 10 from a random number generator. Suppose Bethany guesses a number between 1 and 100 from a random generator.
The probability of Adam guessing the correct ...
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Does the cloning of worlds, like in Many Worlds interpretation, really give the standard interpretation of probabilities?
Copenhagen-
Suppose I ask you to bet on the outcome of 100 spin measurements. And you believe in the Copenhagen interpretation for now. The odds given by the Born rule, for each experiment, are 50:50 ...
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Zero-one laws Model Logic, question regarding significance of domain size
Wikipedia informs me that:
Essentially (correct me if I'm wrong) the result states that as the domain of objects (domain of discourse) grows (n->inf), a static first order sentence (S) will be ...
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Jeffreys probability problem
I'm looking for feedback on the problem below from Jeffreys' probability primer. I think (a) is 0.0009 and (b) is 1 in 1000. Is this correct?
(a) In an urn with 1000 balls, one is green and the rest ...
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Is the inverse gambler’s fallacy charge against the multiverse accurate?
A common reason for why people came up with the multiverse hypothesis was that they couldn’t fathom that a single universe, if it is all that exists, bears the constants necessary to eventually result ...
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Voting and evidential expected utility
Say there is a large election between two candidates 𝐴 and 𝐵. A winning would have a utility value of 100, B winning would have utility value 0. Going out and voting would add a (sub)value of -1 ...
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A "combining logic" moment in Kant
In "Ethical Theories and Moral Guidance", Pekka Väyrynen goes over proposals and arguments concerning the knowability of moral claims. Kant's relevant proposal (in the second Critique) is:
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What type of subjective probability is adopted by Quine?
I am wondering what type of subjective probability is adopted by Quine. Is Quine sympathetic towards de Finetti's probability or Bayes'ones?
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Does Aumann's agreement theorem extend to moral propositions?
Aumann's agreement theorem says:
two perfectly rational agents with the same prior estimate of an event's probability and common knowledge of one another's posterior estimates cannot come to ...
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Cloning order paradox
Suppose there is a cloning device that could make exact copies of humans. It makes one person into two with the exactly same memory and other properties, with equal status and no one defined to be the ...
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Guessing the past - Bayes - Throwing Dart
I'm trying to understand how Bayes formula helps us make guesses about the past.
What are your thoughts about the following philosophical metaphor regarding claims about events in the past?
Whenever ...
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Discussion: Should or should not P(Lying | Human) be above or equal to 0,5?
Condition: An human called X, in this specific case, according to game theory will win the most money and lose the least if applying a lying strategy about event Y happening. If he tells the truth ...
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Humean supervenience and Quine
I am wondering if Quine would adopt the Lewis' Humean supervenience theory to make sense of probability. Quine is a subjectivist about probability (even though regarding probability in QM he thinks ...
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Probabilistic, indeterministic and random in QM
This is a question about terminology used in QM since I need to clarify this aspect. Is “probabilistic” a synonym of “indeterministic”? And in case they are not synonyms, what do they exactly mean? ...
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Distributions of outcomes in Quantum Mechanics
I have read an answer here about the probabilistic nature of QM and I am curious about why QM is able to predict only distributions of outcomes of an experiment. To be clearer, is QM’s inability of ...
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How to make sense of " I know that p but I could be wrong as to p"? ( Faillibilism)
There is a well known modal fallacy regarding knowledge which says that if some subject s knows that p, then p cannot be false, and therefore , p is a necessarily true proposition.
Source : [ by ...
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Is probability just as subjective as morality?
Of course these are different fields yet I would wager that many consider morality to be subjective but probability to not be.
What is the correct answer to “Should I save my dog over an adult human ...
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What is more convincing a vague but true prophecy or no prophecy
Suppose you have two people, Adam and John.
Adam makes a prediction: A catastrophic event will happen in 2025.
John makes no prediction
Now suppose world war 3 happens in 2025
Is the probability that ...
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How would an philosopher and scientist solve the following kidnapping - scenario?
I would like to hear your opinion as philosophers and scientists regarding how you would solve the problem of proof in the following scenario:
"Plato" who has dementia and a damaged left ...