Questions tagged [probability]
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Is it justified to assess the probability of a claim if the claim is unverifiable or do we have to say the probability is inconclusive?
Suppose there is a claim that outside the observable universe (assuming that there is an outside, other than that we don't know anything about outside) there exists a substance A. Can we conclude that ...
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What justifies probability in the case of a onetime experiment?
If I have an "experiment", the results of which can be classified clearly into "outcomes" (like rolling a die), then I can make a concrete and verifiable empirical claim that "if you repeat this ...
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Does anyone know of any essays on Adam's Thesis and Deontic Conditionals?
I'm curious if anyone knows of any essays which concerns how deontic conditionals fit with Adam's Thesis. (Adam's Thesis is the idea that the probability of an indicative conditional A > C is equal ...
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What does it mean to "conditionalize a probability distrubition"?
What does it mean to "conditionalize a probability distrubition"? In case relevant, I've been reading about "Adam's Thesis", and that's where this phrase has been thrown about.
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Jorge Luis Borges suggests that using a lottery is an "intensification of chance." Does this make sense?
By intensification of chance, Borges adds that a lottery brings "a periodic infusion of chaos into the cosmos."
To me, the idea that chance can be "intensified" seems strange. However, I'm also not ...
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How much can investigating three nested systems help interpreting probabilistic theories?
Many attempts to interpret quantum mechanics do so by looking at three nested systems. The largest system is essentially the universe or the environment. The smallest system is the one being observed ...
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Why are homologies evidence for evolution instead of common design?
I have seen some creationists arguing that when evolutionary biologists use homologies (anatomical or genetic) as evidence for evolution, they are committing the fallacy of affirming the consequent. ...
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Is philosophical (total) skepticism compatible with the modern scientific world view?
I've been interested in philosophical skepticism lately as I've just recently learned about the close relationship between certain schools of ancient skepticism and fallibilism, which I'm told is the ...
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Plagiarism problem
I have two exactly similar essays from my students. By the rules they should fail the class. But they claim that it's just coincidence. Taking into consideration the fact, that there is nonzero ...
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Can encrypted information be sent back in time while avoiding the Unproven Theorem Paradox?
Background: The Unproven Paradox involves sending a mathematical proof to individuals in the past that is obtained from the fact that there is a recipient in the past that publicly reveals the proof. ...
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Almost Sure Mind Transfer via Parfit's Identity Theory (interesting thought experiment)
Under Derek Parfit's theory of identity, we should direct our concern to future selves not because they are identical to us, but because they bear some special relation to our current self. He used ...
user4634
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Interpret Bayesian probability as frequentist probability?
It is usually said that the Bayesian probability is a subjective concept, quantifying one's degree of belief in something, while the frequentist probability is the the fraction of certain outcomes ...
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Is there any literature on the relationship between responsibility and probability?
If A causes B and I am doing A (willingly, knowingly, ...), then I can be held responsible for B. But what if probabilities are involved?
Thought experiment:
If you roll a 1 on a die you win.
You ...
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Applying Bayes' theorem to Sleeping Beauty
Suppose we believe the "thirder" position of the Sleeping Beauty Problem. That is, we believe that P(Heads | Waking up) = 1/3.
Applying Bayes' theorem, we get
P(Heads | Waking up) = P(Waking up | ...
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Did something improbable happen when I became conscious?
Let's take that person's subjective experience of the universe is given. If we take for example one particular person - lets say the person that is reasoning about this question (denoted with I in the ...
user2596
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Can playing lotteries be rational?
Suppose you have to choose between:
a. getting 1$
b. getting a ticket of the lottery L(p) which gives you 1'000'000'000$ with probability p and 0 with probability (1-p), with p such that the expected ...
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To what extent did belief in monotheism play a role in the development of modern probability theory?
The most appropriate statement of monotheism is surely the Shema which, as is widely known, is highly related to the Abrahamic faiths. In Chapter 1 of the book "against the gods: the remarkable story ...
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Does Cox's theorem implicitly assumes the three classic laws of thought?
I read about Cox's theorem a long time ago in "Jaynes Probability Theory: The Logic of Science". It was used to justify the so-called "logical" interpretation of probability. My impression was that ...
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