Questions tagged [uncertainty]

The tag has no usage guidance.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
0 votes
2 answers
120 views

human life is based on suspicion and assumption, rather than certainty?

A murder occurred, so the police came to the house where the crime took place, and as soon as they entered, they found a person whose clothes were stained with blood and carrying a knife in his hand. ...
Muhhamedbinghazi's user avatar
1 vote
4 answers
120 views

Are there versions of Pascal's Wager in which the potential benefits can be realized during one's lifetime?

The conventional formulation of Pascal's Wager hinges on the uncertainty of awaiting confirmation until after death to determine the success of the wager. This assumes that the occurrence of death ...
Mark's user avatar
  • 2,583
0 votes
1 answer
53 views

Is our current explosive rate of technological progression because we do science faster and easier OR it is simply happening due to unknown timing?

I often wonder if we are progressing so quickly because we are much more capable than our 18th century natural philosophers ancestors at doing science or we are just living in a period of rapid growth ...
Max's user avatar
  • 395
0 votes
4 answers
683 views

Is assigning a probability to uncertainty a contradiction?

By contradiction here, I don’t necessarily mean a logical contradiction, although perhaps that also does apply here. My question is along the lines of this: Is the very notion of assigning a ...
thinkingman's user avatar
2 votes
4 answers
1k views

Is persistent uncertainty irrational?

Doubt, uncertainty, and questioning things are considered hallmarks in philosophy. Not being certain in a belief is considered a virtue due to how often we are mistaken. But philosophy is also ...
thinkingman's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
55 views

Certainty, or at least near-certainty, in philosophy

I love thinking about and discussing philosophy; I consider it an extremely important discipline. But: In mathematics, many results have been discovered that are virtually certain to be true, ...
Daniel Asimov's user avatar
0 votes
8 answers
612 views

Is an omniscient entity self-refuting?

Consider a thought experiment involving 'something' and three individuals attempting to understand it: one person claims it is a red ball, another asserts it is a simulation, and the third insists it ...
Siddharth Chakravarty's user avatar
1 vote
2 answers
56 views

According to Dustin Locke, when can we be "practically certain"?

Dustin Locke argues that assuming that p is (rather than engage in probabilistic reasoning regarding p) is rationally permissible when it is practically certain. So understood, moral or practical ...
user avatar
0 votes
5 answers
3k views

Why are physically impossible and logically impossible concepts considered separate in terms of probability?

It is considered self contradictory to say that a triangular square exists. This is because it’s a ridiculous concept. It is contradictory inherently. But why is postulating some hidden devil or angel ...
thinkingman's user avatar
3 votes
2 answers
306 views

Is probabilistic modus tollens a fallacy?

Modus tollens takes the form of "If P, then Q. Not Q. Therefore, not P." A probabilistic version of Modus Tollens says "If P, then Q is very improbable. Q. Therefore, P is very ...
thinkingman's user avatar
3 votes
5 answers
239 views

Should doubt be epistemically justified?

If you doubt a claim X, should this very state of being in doubt be justified? How does one justify doubt in the first place? One can technically doubt anything except experience. But few would say ...
thinkingman's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
121 views

Quantum vs classic dangerous decisions under many-worlds interpretation

Consider the following scenario: You are a military truck driver tasked with delivering supplies. The destination is close to enemy territory. To not be predictable, each truck randomizes the route ...
Justas's user avatar
  • 423
1 vote
1 answer
220 views

Does 1. extra-, 2. intra-polation fall under abduction, induction or deduction?

How does extrapolation relate to abduction, deduction, and/or induction? Scilicet, does abduction, deduction, and/or induction fully encompass Extrapolation? Same question for Interpolation. I ...
user avatar