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Results tagged with probability
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user 68445
Use for questions about chance and likelihood, and attempts to define "probability" logically and metaphysically.
2
votes
How do I justify that prior evidence matters?
This kind of reasoning is also an element of Bayesian inference, where probability of a particular theory being true is informed by many prior observations, not simply the latest observation. …
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16
votes
What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theo...
Bayes' theorem does not dictate how one selects the prior probabilities. Certainly one can fill a Bayesian model with bigotry and unjustified biases, but this is not necessary. One can even use what i …
- 5,443
8
votes
Can we ever infer design purely from improbability?
Even some zero-probability events are not impossible. …
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8
votes
If someone clearly believes that he has witnessed something extraordinary very clearly, why ...
The probability that someone somewhere will experience a hallucination or any other perceptual anomaly (misperceiving depth, speed, or size; blind spots; other visual illusions) leading them to to have … Depending on what the "extraordinary event" is, the probability of perceptual failure is normally much greater than the probability of one of the theories precluding the "extraordinary event" being false …
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4
votes
Is it ever reasonable to infer impossibility from high improbability?
If you are using "infer" and "impossible" in their strict sense, then no: low, non-zero probability does not allow one to infer impossibility.
Even some zero-probability events are not impossible. …
- 5,443
2
votes
Have any philosophers used permutation/probability theory to justify our preference for simp...
All of Wrinch, Jeffreys, Weyl, and Popper rejected the idea that some prior probability of the theory is what makes it "simpler" or preferred. … There is no suggestion here that he realizes that simplicity, and explanatory power, are equivalent to logical improbability, in the sense of the probability calculus. …
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1
vote
Is probability actually “objective” in quantum mechanics?
You say:
But the probability of an atom decaying within a certain time span is calculated by observing the percentage of atoms amongst a group of atoms historically that decay within a certain period …
- 5,443
28
votes
How can a fundamentally random process follow a probability distribution?
Nothing "keeps track" of a probability distribution other than us observers. The physical processes are whatever they are, and to us, this may manifest as observable probability distributions. … The probability distribution is our description of our observations and a predictive model of the underlying process. …
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