26
votes
What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theorem?
Bayes' theorem is just that- a theorem. It is no more based on prejudice than Pythagoras' theorem. All calculations are subject to the 'garbage in, garbage out' rule. If I make wild guesses about the ...
- 24.8k
17
votes
What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theorem?
So does Bayes’ theorem reduce to ordinary prejudice?
In some circumstances, you could say that, you could say that priors are arguably just rooted in personal biases, but not all applications of ...
- 3,769
16
votes
What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theorem?
Bayes' theorem does not dictate how one selects the prior probabilities. Certainly one can fill a Bayesian model with bigotry and unjustified biases, but this is not necessary. One can even use what ...
- 2,492
6
votes
How is this Linda example addressed by Bayesian thinking?
Suppose that you see Linda go to the bank every single day. Presumably this supports the hypothesis H = Linda is a banker. But this also supports the hypothesis H = Linda is a Banker and Linda is a ...
- 3,769
6
votes
Does psychophysical harmony strongly point toward theism?
The paper seems to be largely framed as an argument against some sort of dualist naturalist.
But I would argue that reductive materialism has no problem explaining what they're trying to explain.
The &...
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6
votes
Does psychophysical harmony strongly point toward theism?
The paper correctly points out that physicalist naturalism requires a large number of mind-body relationships. However, it falsely claims that these are difficult to explain in principle within ...
- 15.4k
6
votes
At what point should we suspect unfair game?
You start with some estimate of how likely it is, before the spins, that the wheel is rigged to only roll black. Then you look at the chance the wheel would have produced the sequence of spins if it ...
- 16.8k
5
votes
At what point should we suspect unfair game?
You start with "From a frequentist standpoint, each spin of a fair roulette wheel ..." (emphasis mine). The frequentist approach you describe is in response to this question, where "the ...
- 518
4
votes
How is this Linda example addressed by Bayesian thinking?
A few preliminary points, for information:
The discussion within the interview that you are referring to starts at timestamp 1:06:55 in the linked video.
In the example, Deutsch refers to Linda ...
- 29k
3
votes
Does psychophysical harmony strongly point toward theism?
It's basically an argument from incredulity, one of the poorest form of theist apologetics, to the point of being a cliché.
The author just lists a bunch of ocurences they hold to be improbable, ...
- 7,264
3
votes
Accepted
Bayesian conditional probability and material implication
So example 6, on page 228 of your linked text, goes like this, translated to modern notation.
Given that P(y ∨ ¬x¬y) = p, what is P(y | x) ?
To answer this Boole introduces a constant c. He says that ...
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2
votes
Accepted
Mario Bunge on Bayesianism
P(AIDS | HIV) = P(AIDS) However, this is known to be false: in fact, means HIV is necessary but not sufficient to develop AIDS. (Given, as in the quote in the question, that the sample has P(HIV)=1.)
...
- 7,328
2
votes
How is this Linda example addressed by Bayesian thinking?
There is no contradiction. The probability of two independent things being true is the product of their individual probabilities, p1p2. If you increase the probability of p1, you also increase the ...
- 24.8k
2
votes
Does psychophysical harmony strongly point toward theism?
The paper buries the argument under some very heavy jargon. I will attempt to bring the issue down to plain English.
The paper addresses evolution, and says "pain is lawfully linked to avoidance ...
- 121
2
votes
What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theorem?
I suspect that you are confusing Bayes's Theorem with Bayesian inference. As @Marco Osram pointed out, Bayes's Theorem is an actual theorem, with a proof. Frequentists don't question Bayes's Theorem; ...
- 836
2
votes
What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theorem?
A mathematical theorem that can be proved to hold true inside a mathematical context, becomes part of the theory itself. In that case you can see it as tool; what you do with that tool, is up to you. ...
- 2,792
1
vote
What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theorem?
Short answer
NO! What Bayes' Theorem does, is allow one to do statistical analysis of what happens to one's prior belief, given new data.
To do that, one must specify one's prior, and its relative ...
- 15.4k
1
vote
How is this Linda example addressed by Bayesian thinking?
Let B = "Linda is a banker",
L = "Linda is a librarian",
and E = "Linda entered a bank every day".
Suppose that you see Linda go to the bank every single day. Presumably ...
- 1,359
1
vote
Does psychophysical harmony strongly point toward theism?
If you assume the outputs of televisions are not causally related to their inner workings, you will be so struck by the harmony that exists between the two that you will feel compelled to assume that ...
- 24.8k
1
vote
Is not knowing whether X is true inconsistent with assigning a probability to it?
Some theorists hold that statements about logical truths are exceptions to the application of the Cromwell rule, so they may be considered to have a probability 0 or 1. For myself, I would rather ...
- 29k
1
vote
Is not knowing whether X is true inconsistent with assigning a probability to it?
As to the question in your title, no, they are not inconsistent. If I keep my eyes closed while I toss a die, then despite not knowing the outcome, I can still assign a probability of 1/6 to the event ...
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