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5 votes

How should one treat probability in taking a decision?

It depends on subjective criteria. For example, you may decide that a difference of 0.2% is not significant to you, and conclude "do nothing". Or you might use a Pascal wager type argument. ...
Frank's user avatar
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5 votes
Accepted

How might a decision be defined if it is to be defined as something other than an act (a 'thing done')?

Here is a selection of references to make them more visible than in the comments. That decisions are mental/intentional acts is a very common position. McCall's paper in the OP argues for it, and ...
Conifold's user avatar
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3 votes

How to rationally decide between two events A and B having happened

I'm not sure why the event being in the past matters here. You are asking in effect whether there is a rational way to make a betting choice based on partial information. Suppose we change the example ...
Bumble's user avatar
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3 votes
Accepted

According to utilitarianism, are the only moral actions the ones that maximize utility? What about actions that increase utility, but not maximally?

Well, the question is flawed because it assumes a binary distinction between "moral" and "immoral" acts. In utilitarianism, actions are more moral, or less moral, not completely ...
causative's user avatar
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2 votes

Maximizing expected value - "triple or nothing" on a fair bet

The important feature of an example like this is that we are being asked to find the optimal strategy for playing a multi-round game. The fundamental reason that maximizing expected value at each ...
Bumble's user avatar
  • 26.2k
2 votes

Ethics, axiology, and decision theory

Part of the problem here is that this question conflates two different senses of the term 'value': The econometric sense, which uses 'value' as a noun to indicate (an often normalized) comparative ...
Ted Wrigley's user avatar
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2 votes

Ethics, axiology, and decision theory

According to reference here and here: Normative decision theory is concerned with identification of optimal decisions where optimality is often determined by considering an ideal decision maker who ...
Double Knot's user avatar
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2 votes

Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)

In the science fiction novel The Sirens of Titan there is a brief "business" concerning a scientist. He has the idea that all human creativity arises due to a small organ in the brain that ...
BillOnne's user avatar
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2 votes

Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)

Decisions may be either voluntary or involuntary. False. Decisions are not actions. Only actions are either voluntary (=decided) or involuntary (=not decided). Insofar as free will requires the ...
Pertti Ruismäki's user avatar
2 votes

How to rationally decide between two events A and B having happened

A typical person would decide based on a largely subconscious judgement of which event seemed the more likely. There will be cases were one event seems much more likely than another (eg John tossed a ...
Marco Ocram's user avatar
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2 votes

Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)

The fault in your argument is at point 5. It is possible that one involuntarily is prompted to make a voluntary decision.
Marco Ocram's user avatar
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2 votes

Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)

This argument suffers from all the failings of the Standard Argument against free will, plus an additional one of relying upon infinite regress reasoning. The core problem for both arguments is they ...
Dcleve's user avatar
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1 vote

When do I have sufficient evidence to believe that an observed event is an occurrence of a very rare event with similar characteristics?

What else could it be? The question is very vague, and so my answer will be as well. The extent to which you can conclude that you witnessed an event of type A depends on what alternatives are ...
Noah Nazareth's user avatar
1 vote
Accepted

How should one treat probability in taking a decision?

I object to the grounds of your question. It is impossible to calculate a probability for the truth of a religion. Even if you could allocate a probability, a probability alone is no basis for ...
Marco Ocram's user avatar
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1 vote

Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)

Let's consider the difference between "atomic" and composite actions: Intentional actions are picked out and segmented into their parts by applications of Anscombe’s ‘Why?’-questions. (‘Why ...
Kristian Berry's user avatar
1 vote

Can a decision be something other than voluntary or involuntary?

Consider the Hungry Judge Effect, or the research on how smells even that we aren't aware of impact out behaviours, like The Smell of Virtue: Clean Scents Promote Reciprocity and Charity. There are ...
CriglCragl's user avatar
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1 vote

Proof for the Absence of Free Will (Revised)

You’ve couched your argument in an “insofar as” that cripples it. If I have trained myself to respond instinctively to a situation of a particular kind (Kahneman’s “fast thinking”), I do not ...
Paul Ross's user avatar
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1 vote

How might a decision be defined if it is to be defined as something other than an act (a 'thing done')?

(instead of a comment) The question and its related questions center around an assumed split between "decision to act" and the "act" itself. First of all, there is no a priori ...
Nikos M.'s user avatar
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1 vote

Is there a philosophical stance concerning justification of decisions?

You should try searching this site on a topic you are interested in. I found: Ethics, axiology, and decision theory Has anyone claimed that no decision is inherently better or more rational than any ...
CriglCragl's user avatar
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1 vote

What bias it would be called?

If you only have 2 options, and the known bias for option 1 is the only known bias from your end, then it seems rational and deontic you choose option 2 assuming you do want to get rid of your bias/...
Double Knot's user avatar
  • 3,937
1 vote

Books on having children

I'm not sure if you are trying to find a justification for a decision you've already made, or if you are still open about the decision, but just a suggestion: You don't mention what your reasons are ...
Fox Mulder's user avatar
1 vote

Maximizing expected value - "triple or nothing" on a fair bet

Unlike what is said in another response, if, very unrealistically for real people, your utility is indeed linear in the final outcome after finitely many rounds (however many -- say T), then always ...
present's user avatar
  • 2,500
1 vote
Accepted

Choice and action

Now is, "Do this but don't choose to do this," likewise odd, so that we "see" some connection between choice and action? The answer to this question is a very emphatic no. Both ...
J D's user avatar
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1 vote

Philosophical framework for avoiding short-term strategies

I think it's good to distinguish a few things here from a theoretical perspective (even though some of the real-world examples given in the question have aspects of multiple of these). 1) Tragedy-of-...
present's user avatar
  • 2,500

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