12
votes
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
You can always find a model that explains the past, but is wrong (so fails to explain the future).
Prediction is such a strong indicator of correctness because it means the model still works on ...
- 1,552
8
votes
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
Anyone can make a prediction. I can predict it will rain today. Whether it does or not, the prediction has no epistemic value.
If I create a model for the ...
- 211
7
votes
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
True vs. Useful
Most theories are not strictly "true" or "false". Newton's theory of gravity depends on a view of spacetime that is generally agreed to be false (roughly true in ...
- 171
7
votes
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
But you can't actually see or verify that happening. It's not that it's a weak explanation because it accommodates data. It's a weak explanation because it doesn't actually explain anything,
And ...
- 2,203
4
votes
Accepted
Epistemic access to possible worlds for David Lewis and empiricism
David Lewis (IEP), a great contemporary philosophical mind, had empirical beliefs and certainly, like most professional contemporary philosophers, had a naturalized epistemology. But was he an ...
- 12.7k
3
votes
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
Evaluating the reliability of predictions forms a huge part of science, statistics, epistemology, striving towards truth and just daily life (whether you're consciously aware of it or not).
Let's say ...
- 1,603
3
votes
Accepted
Bayes' Theorem and Science
It depends on what you mean by true. Scientific theories such as relativity and quantum mechanics are models of reality. An accepted meaning of 'true' is 'in accord with facts or reality'. Therefore, ...
- 1,964
3
votes
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
The final goal of mathematics is to predict the future, which is useful for survival (I predict where a cannonball falls, so, I defeat my enemy, or, I can calculate how much will this air-conditioning ...
- 5,617
3
votes
Epistemic access to possible worlds for David Lewis and empiricism
The answer depends upon what you mean by the words believed, possible worlds and real.
If you believe that somewhere, in different universes presumably, there are countless worlds that exist in the ...
- 1,964
3
votes
Why does science carry so much weight in philosophy when it is highly fallacious?
Your claim that scientific reasoning is fallacious is simply misguided. The point about the scientific method- particularly as it is applied in modern physics- is not that someone proposes a ...
- 1,964
2
votes
Should doubt be epistemically justified?
The word "certainty," which is the English linguistic foil of the word "doubt," also happens to carry with it a sense of specificity, as when we say, "I met a certain cat on a ...
- 5,619
2
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What does "structural similarity" mean in correspondence theory?
I'm not deeply familiar with correspondence theory but will try to help interpret what is stated in the question.
a structural similarity between the subject/predicate distinction of some language ...
- 1,043
2
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Does prediction really have epistemic value?
Humans don't like surprises. Most surprises that make a difference are not birthday parties or checks in the mail. They are volcanoes erupting, pouncing carnivores, financial crashes, and spouses who ...
- 12.7k
2
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Does prediction really have epistemic value?
I think @haxor789 and @kutschkem give the basic answer, but to expand on some of your points:
Suppose I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100 and I enter a restaurant. I check the table number and ...
- 121
2
votes
Accepted
Markus Gabriel's conception of thinking as a sense
I'm reading through the whole interview (that was a really good dialectical move, here, by the way: putting the alert at the head of the OP made me feel prospectively guilty about the thought of ...
- 5,619
2
votes
Markus Gabriel's conception of thinking as a sense
This question is typical of so many in philosophy, in a which an ambiguous word is allocated yet another meaning with the result of causing disagreement with those who take the word to mean something ...
- 1,964
2
votes
Are random processes equivalent to unpredictable processes
Randomness is a complicated concept with different meanings in different contexts.
Unpredictability is common to all meanings of random, but everything unpredictable is not random.
In statistics, ...
- 727
1
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Markus Gabriel's conception of thinking as a sense
For a contemporary physicalist (SEP), absolutely not. Other metaphysical frameworks might support it. I'm not familiar enough to argue them.
It's not odd for neo-Platonic thinkers, but certainly for ...
- 12.7k
1
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Markus Gabriel's conception of thinking as a sense
The view outlined in the quote above is problematic for several reasons. First, it presupposes platonism, which is the belief that abstract objects such as mathematical concepts exist independently of ...
1
vote
Does prediction really have epistemic value?
The temporal veil of ignorance between the present and the future gives true predictions their epistemic value. It's an undeniable fact that nobody really knows what's gonna happen the next instant ...
- 1,256
1
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Does prediction really have epistemic value?
Lot's of good, intuitive answers here. I'm going to take things a little more formally.
Epistemic force is a term you might hear regarding assertions. It essentially means that some assertions have ...
- 12.7k
1
vote
Resources on the distinction between epistemology in pure and applied mathematics
Welcome TomKern,
I hereby attempt to give you the answers you are seeking. Don't hesitate to correct me if I misunderstand or am unclear. I'll give you the whizbang tour.
First off, when I talk of &...
- 12.7k
1
vote
Bayes' Theorem and Science
I would put pressure on your second assumption.
As there many reasons of way and how to choose one scientific hypotheses out of the many that are possible, and parsimony is a leading reason, but for ...
- 11
1
vote
A Theory That Explains Everything Explains Nothing
There is a constant leitmotif in philosophy, one of a struggle between skepticism and certainty of belief. The evolution of 21st century epistemology from the episteme of the Ancient Greeks has been ...
- 12.7k
1
vote
Accepted
A Theory That Explains Everything Explains Nothing
I think it may help to put this in terms of Bayesian probability. Bayesian probability is an interpretation of mathematical probabilities as representing our degree of certainty - a high probability ...
- 1,569
1
vote
A Theory That Explains Everything Explains Nothing
First we have to understand what explanation is.
A thing can only be explained in terms of simpler things, all the way to axioms. Axioms themselves cannot be explained, they have to be taken as they ...
- 995
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A Theory That Explains Everything Explains Nothing
In the context of Popper I'd conjecture that this refers to the ability to make a prediction for any event. Like if you'd understood and are able to explain something you'd be able to offer a ...
- 2,203
1
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Should doubt be epistemically justified?
Your question is based on the false assumption that it can be answered without considering specifics. It is rather like asking whether objects in France are bigger than objects in Germany- the answer ...
- 1,964
1
vote
Should doubt be epistemically justified?
We know from experience and observation (if we assume for a moment that our experiences and observations are reliable), that doubt is very often well-justified, in that it leads us to be skeptical of ...
- 2,228
1
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Epistemic pluralism’s potential slippery slope into epistemic nihilism
Classical logic operates off the "All or Nothing" paradigm. And we intuitively think in classical logic terms, because that is how classic logic was developed (apply intuitive logic to ...
- 6,803
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