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There are plenty of issues with subjective probability assignments to degrees of belief discussed e.g. in SEP's Subjective Probability Theory. I will only address the one outlined in the OP. For a book length treatment see Fundamental Uncertainty: Rationality and Plausible Reasoning volume edited by Marzetti and Brandolini. The idea of distinguishing ...


3

These interactions can be better modeled with Drama Theory, which covers a set of individuals playing multiple games in a row, with the ability to change their decision making process between game theory games. This better models human interactions. If you have drama theory, you can explore more complicated interactions, such as a subset of drama ...


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Quantum indeterminacy is inextricable from observation because that which we consider to be "quantum indeterminacy" is related to the interpretations of QM rather than the mathematical model behind QM. (I expect this question to get migrated to Physics.SE, because it is really more of a physics question than a philosophy question. When it gets there, I ...


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It's just the fallacy of composition. The person is reasoning: It is possible for me to make money on a single hand, therefore it is possible for me to make money on a (sufficiently large) set of hands. The inference is incorrect, for the reason you mention above.


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It would never be rational to be irrational. In Rational Actor Theory, a rational actor is goal-oriented, reflective and consistent. If you act irrationally, you will not achieve one of these goals. However, there is nothing which prevents a player from choosing to act in a way that appears irrational because they perceive a long term benefit to others ...


1

In the prisoner's dilemma, there are two sides: There are the prisoners, which are in a very unfortunate situation, and there is the person who set up the dilemma, who I would assume is a thoroughly nasty character who enjoys the situation. In your case, the individual car sales persons don't actually have a dilemma: It's clearly in every single sales ...


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