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0 votes

Is there a scientific real world content in probability beyond the math' theory of probablility?

Look into Karl Friston for the most scientific answer to your question, and always look for a reductive scientific explanation. Philosophers tend to overcomplicate already complicated issues. Reducing ...
0 votes

What does it mean for something to be "more likely"? Whether you would bet on it? Whether history suggests it to be true? Or both?

In short, "more likely" means a higher likelihood, which you can attempt to approximate using historical data, and which you can attempt to use in your favor when betting. Everything else ...
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6 votes

What does it mean for something to be "more likely"? Whether you would bet on it? Whether history suggests it to be true? Or both?

I believe you are asking the same question over and over again in all these posts: can probability theory help me with subjective decisions? Cutting to the chase, probability theory is a mathematical ...
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1 vote

What does it mean for something to be "more likely"? Whether you would bet on it? Whether history suggests it to be true? Or both?

It's subjective because terms like "professional, non-professional, good, bad" have no objective meaning in your question. What is the statistical difference between a professional and an ...
3 votes

What does it mean for something to be "more likely"? Whether you would bet on it? Whether history suggests it to be true? Or both?

Your are supposing that 'more likely' has a well defined meaning, which is quite wrong. The way the phrase might be used by a physicist or statistician might be quite different to the way in which it ...
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2 votes

What does it mean for something to be "more likely"? Whether you would bet on it? Whether history suggests it to be true? Or both?

Excellent question. It is a tremendously broad question, as all interesting questions are because while all people use phrases that relay confidence in outcomes and events, very few people reflect on ...
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0 votes

If the gambler's fallacy is real, why should our belief in propositions depend on past events?

Say there are 10 people and there are 100 numbers to choose from. The first person chooses a number and I'm supposed to guess it. The chances that I'll get it right is 1/100 and say I did get it right,...
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2 votes

If a hypothesis confers a low probability on an observation, is this evidence against the hypothesis?

The answer to your headline question is definitely not necessarily. Suppose my hypothesis is that balls are drawn from a lottery machine at random, so you have a chance of 1 in a million of winning ...
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1 vote

What is the name of this inference where one uses uniqueness to imply very low probability and design?

The birthday paradox is a surprising probability result. If you have a random group of 23 people, you might think it would be very unusual to find that two of the people have the same birthday. After ...
1 vote

What is the name of this inference where one uses uniqueness to imply very low probability and design?

If a single three-legged human were born, in a population of 100 trillion, that would be a rare event. But there would be a one in 365 chance that it would be born on the Pope's birthday, so the ...
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0 votes

How do we know if something is generated from a random process?

Nothing random can be generated from a process. There cannot be any randomness if there is anything generated. Generation has to be by some method, some way, some mechanism. The very existence of ...
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2 votes

How do we know if something is generated from a random process?

For any given finite output, there an infinite number of deterministic processes that could have generated that output. As additional output is observed, infinitely many possibilities will be ruled ...
1 vote

In what sense are life permitting constants improbable?

I interpret the claim as one of logical probability rather than frequentist probability, so the fact that there is only one known trial is not relevant. Logically, there is a wide range of values that ...
0 votes

Heisenberg, Copenhagen and probability in QM

The so-called Copenhagen Interpretation is not a single interpretation but a collection with some common ground. The entities it pre-supposes are particles, fields or potentials, time, space and ...
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