Timeline for What should a rational person accept as a miracle?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
10 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2013 at 22:04 | comment | added | Mozibur Ullah | @Boardman:This is nonsense: If the probability is zero then seeing that people DO hit the board then your analysis is wrong. You're using a mathematical theory to describe empirical facts that do not describe them correctly. In fact for any one individual person you can see how often his hits or misses the board; then frequency relation will give you the probability. What you did was a sleight of hand - akin to a magicians trick. As per Chad comment - his reasoning is far clearer. | |
| Aug 3, 2011 at 13:40 | comment | added | Chad | @Tom FollowUp - In the first 6 games (They got annoyed with my collecting data every round so i stopped) 43 bullseyes 10 of them in the Double bull 2 of them in the center hole None of the games went past round 12 all night and there were 2 more center hole bull hits. ~250 shots on bull 4 hits = 1.6% Far above 0. | |
| Aug 2, 2011 at 19:27 | comment | added | Chad | @Tom If you put some barrier up that will prevent the dart from reaching it is zero. I will go to darts tonight and I will see at least 50 bullseyes. One of them will be in the center hole. 16 games assume 200 darts per game (Thats very high most games even with 4 people end by round 13) is 1 in 3200 0.03% which is signifigantly more than 0 | |
| Aug 2, 2011 at 17:51 | comment | added | Tom Boardman | @Chad, what probability would you ascribe, then, for hitting, say, the exact centre of the board? I know that it may not be zero exactly (when I first wrote that comment I tried to edit it to clarify the potential deficiency in applying a continuous probabilistic model to a physical situation [where the reality may in fact be macro combinatorial- noone knows] but by the time I had finished, the comment was closed to edits) but certainly near as dammit- and quite likely in reality, the probability is zero. See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_event for clarification. | |
| Aug 2, 2011 at 17:34 | comment | added | Chad | @Tom Actually its not zero or even infintatly small. However I have seen some people throw darts where i would classify thier hitting the board a near miracle, the example above I would not. | |
| Aug 2, 2011 at 11:37 | comment | added | Peter Turner | The bible should have quite a but of significance since it can put us on the same page for what is miraculous and what isn't regardless of our beliefs. As well as foster a discussion of what it takes to accept a miracle, which apparently is much more than just seeing. | |
| Aug 2, 2011 at 4:14 | history | edited | Green Noob | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
added 1638 characters in body
|
| Aug 1, 2011 at 19:24 | comment | added | Joseph Weissman♦ | Lotto winners might be another example -- "highly improbable event" does not equal "divine intervention". | |
| Aug 1, 2011 at 16:50 | comment | added | Tom Boardman | The probability of hitting any one exact spot on a dartboard is zero ('infinitely small' for the non-mathematically inclined), and yet I have often seen darts hit the board, is this a miracle? | |
| Aug 1, 2011 at 16:06 | history | answered | Green Noob | CC BY-SA 3.0 |