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An agency mandated to protect the community finds itself with an opportunity to conduct an action it believes will prevent a serious violent crime. The action must remain secret however, because the planned action is ethically unsound.

Should the action become public, the resulting damage to the reputation of the agency will likely cause a public harm at least equivalent to the harm they seek to prevent. It will likely result in a severe diminishment of public trust in the agency, which in turn will likely impair its ability to successfully prevent similar crimes in the future.

It is deemed impossible to estimate the odds of the action becoming public.

What ethical approaches, if any, exist as a means by which to determine whether or not the agency is justified in conducting its covert action?

(Or, is such a dilemma unaddressable in the absence of further detail?).

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    Rule utilitarianism: details of specific circumstances are impossible to know, and their consequences impossible to predict, so act according to rules with better consequences on average. And on average, "everything secret will be brought into the open, everything done in the dark will be brought to light". That is, accepting your factual premises. But... the odds of disclosure are "impossible to estimate", yet it "will cause public harm at least equivalent"? Some incoherent predictive powers that agency of yours has. And it must be uncharacteristically bad at PR and self-propaganda.
    – Conifold
    Commented Nov 22, 2021 at 11:45
  • @Conifold. Thanks. Your comment about utilitarianism makes sense. Is it not reasonable however for the odds of disclosure to be impossible to estimate, but for the consequences to be (relatively) easy to predict? I don't understand why this is incoherent. Can you explain any further? Commented Nov 22, 2021 at 13:02
  • Because both depend on reactions and sensibilities of multiple people, which both can be not only passively projected but also actively managed. If they can see public reaction and its effect on their reputation with such crystal clarity I do not see why they should not have the same clarity on what to do to frustrate, obfuscate or discredit its causes. Which is why I expect them to follow utilitarian rules based on very different assumptions. Plausible deniability and waiving bloody shirts are not there for nothing.
    – Conifold
    Commented Nov 22, 2021 at 13:28
  • @Conifold. News in Australia surfaced recently. Police recruited a lawyer to inform on her clients. It would likely have been very difficult to predict the odds of the news surfacing. At all stages however, many consequences of the story surfacing would have been easy to predict, such as the need for re-trials, the loss of cases, compensation payouts, loss of public trust, reprisals, and so on. There is nothing incoherent about such a scenario. That being said, it makes sense for me to temper the unrealistic clarity you identified with a couple of qualifiers. This has now been done. Cheers. Commented Nov 22, 2021 at 13:53

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The use of probability — i.e., invoking 'likely results' and assessment of odds — hides the deeper philosophical issue at stake. This issue boils down to the following:

Are all acts ethical if one isn't caught committing them?

This is a commonly-held position in the practical world, one that ethicists and theologians have fought against for as far back as one cares to look. The logic behind it is simple enough. Everyone believes that their own intentions are good; everyone believes that their own action are either justifiable or excusable; everyone believes that they themselves are exempt (in given context) from the vague, impersonal, didactic, and sometimes irrational rules imposed by society. Thus there is a strong inclination to believe that one's own actions are moral by default, and that the only concern is hiding one's actions from those who might ignorantly try to punish them.

This is as true of CEOs and state leaders as it is of bricklayers and baristas; as prevalent among saintly grandmothers as among serial killers. No one does something they themselves think is wrong, but they are much more fluid about what other people think is wrong.

None of the major schools of ethics would condone the agency's actions. Consequentialists would point out that bad consequences exist — e.g., the transformation of an agency of justice into a criminal gang — whether or not they are known to the public. Deontologists would say that it is irrational for the agency to pursue criminals while excusing their own criminal acts; that is not a uniform or universal principle. Virtue ethicists would point out that the ideal of criminal justice precludes the commission of criminal acts. Whether they can get anyone to listen is a different matter, but the ethics of the situation is clear for anyone who thinks philosophically.

It would be an interesting and disturbing world if ethics were a subfield of quantum mechanics, ethical considerations only occur if an act is externally observed (unless the moral wave function collapses, good and bad remain superimposed on the act). But I'm not sure the world is ready for the introduction of that kind of scientific nihilism.

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