18
votes
Accepted
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
If we assume that the probability of a witness testifying to an event is higher if the event actually happened (a reasonable assumption), then it is true that observing that testimony makes the event ...
- 1,650
17
votes
Is watching an amputated limb regrow proof of the supernatural?
Logically, if we could prove that God healed amputees then it would as a corollary prove the existence of God. (it is simply the argument that; "if X is specifically observed to do Y, then X must ...
- 2,612
13
votes
Is getting 100 Heads in a row from a fair coin a miracle or not?
Yes, but only because every possible sequence of flips is a miracle.
Consider. Suppose I flip a fair coin 10 times in a row. Say I get HTTHTTHTHT.
Now that seems pretty normal, nothing remarkable ...
- 3,017
11
votes
Accepted
Is watching an amputated limb regrow proof of the supernatural?
Short Answer
As an athiest who advocates for philosophy, I would suggest there would be many rational bases for attacking your attribution of the regrowth to the supernatural which by definition ...
- 36k
11
votes
Is watching an amputated limb regrow proof of the supernatural?
The term 'supernatural' is generally used by modern skeptics in the sense: "That which cannot be explained by natural processes using the natural sciences." However, any event that can be ...
- 24.4k
11
votes
Can a zero prior probability for some theories be justified?
I argue that, for any
falsifiable hypothesis,
a
prior probability of
exactly 0 or 1 is irrational; to assign such a prior is to
explicitly abandon one's capacity for reasoning in the face of evidence.
...
- 379
7
votes
Should religiously significant coincidences be seen as miracles?
The definition of a "miracle" as a violation of the apparent laws of nature, expressed cogently by Hume in his essay on the topic, is common in both philosophy and in the general population. ...
- 30.7k
6
votes
Is watching an amputated limb regrow proof of the supernatural?
TL;DR: Concluding from "if amputations are permanent then there is no Christian God" that "if amputations are not permanent then there is a Christian God" is the simple logical ...
- 3,008
5
votes
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
There's an interesting anecdotal example of this. Since you're looking for an intuitive answer, I think a compelling anecdote is meaningful. This example centers around this famous picture:
This ...
- 18.8k
4
votes
Is the idea of the word of God a means to understand human nature, and prayer?
Introduction
The short answer is that the "Word of God" shouldn't be read as prayer.
Within Biblical hermeneutics, there are two ways to interpret Biblical texts - either exegetically or ...
- 181
4
votes
Is Hume's famous quote on miracles equivalent to Sagan's extraordinary claim principle?
The two statements overlap. The difference is that Hume's is explicitly about improbable claims, whereas Sagan's extraordinary could mean more or other than improbable.
Hume's point can be stated in a ...
- 26.5k
4
votes
Can a zero prior probability for some theories be justified?
Yes, if you have reason to suppose a phenomenon is impossible, you can allocate a zero probability to it. If later you find it is possible after all, then you were wrong in your initial assessment. ...
- 26.5k
4
votes
Can a zero prior probability for some theories be justified?
It's not impossible to assign priors of 0 or 1 in the Bayesian framework it's just pointless.
Like assigning a probability of 0 or 1 expresses your firmly held believe that something does or doesn't ...
- 8,168
3
votes
Is watching an amputated limb regrow proof of the supernatural?
If you want to prove to me that an omnipotent and sentient being (god) exists then you want to demonstrate omnipotence and sentience of this being to me. An isolated case of people regrowing limbs ...
- 1,155
3
votes
Is getting 100 Heads in a row from a fair coin a miracle or not?
David Corner describes two kinds of miracles.
Violation miracles are violations of natural law. However, getting 100 heads in a row does not violate any law of nature. It is merely unexpected. Hence ...
- 19.8k
3
votes
Accepted
Is the idea of the word of God a means to understand human nature, and prayer?
You have noticed something very important I think.
The logos ("word" will do, but it is an inadequate translation) is a sign, but is it really a mere sign, or does it actually participate, actively ...
- 1,721
3
votes
Is the idea of the word of God a means to understand human nature, and prayer?
can the word of God (Christ?) be read as an allegory on how it is that prayer works.
Sure, if you want. Unless you happen to live in a place or time that takes heretical notions seriously, there's ...
- 1,828
3
votes
How does quantum mechanics affect the probability of macro events?
To my eye, it looks like multiple questions are being asked at once, so I'm going to try to pick them out and answer them:
Is quantum mechanics deterministic, or probabilistically random? You'll read ...
- 3,963
3
votes
Can the Humean argument against miracles also apply to divine providence?
When you say 'we have never observed a non-human designer' you are begging the question. A theist could say that you are surrounded by the handiwork of a non-human designer, and that you yourself are ...
- 26.5k
3
votes
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
Probability vs. Bayesian belief
Firstly, Bayes theorem describes not the probability of the actual event (in its usual frequentest understanding - as likelihood of an event actually happening given ...
- 2,032
3
votes
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
Let:
M: a miracle happened
~M: no miracle happened
R: reports of a miracle
The posterior probability of a miracle given reports of it is expressed as:
P(M|R) = P(R|M) * P(M) / P(R)
Where:
P(R) = P(R|...
- 4,507
3
votes
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
Just to be clear, standard probabilistic methods and Bayesian methods are doing different things. Standard probability works by creating a probabilistic model based on a set of assumptions, and then ...
- 24.4k
2
votes
Does Alvin Plantinga's solution to the problem of divine action entail a total denial of the applicability of Newtonian physics to the world?
To see that causally closed systems need not become forever open once an agent interferes with the system externally, suppose I run a program on an isolated computer that performs a simple, but ...
- 19.8k
2
votes
Is getting 100 Heads in a row from a fair coin a miracle or not?
If you're talking about the final toss in a sequence of 100, where 99 have already come up as heads, then the odds are STILL 50%. Whether the tosser (sorry, we may have to come up with a better name ...
- 1,527
2
votes
Why do we need repetitive demonstration to accept miracles happening?
The point is that most of the examples you quote are not in themselves hard to believe.
Charlemagne died in 814- well, he was mortal, and died around that time, and there is more than one source that ...
- 26.5k
2
votes
Why do we need repetitive demonstration to accept miracles happening?
This question conflates two separate and distinct issues:
The existence of an event (a singular phenomenon): something that someone encounters as an experience and records in the stream of ...
- 24.4k
2
votes
Why do we need repetitive demonstration to accept miracles happening?
When it comes to inductive reasoning (and based on how I define induction it includes abduction), I’m a convinced Bayesian. I'll offer an answer from that perspective.
Given a piece of evidence, E, ...
- 3,904
2
votes
Bayes and unknown probabilites: is this reasoning from the failure of explanation a fallacy?
Probability is something that must be considered at a specific point in time, otherwise it would have no purpose.
Considering this Universe is based on duality, of balance of energy (because it ...
- 684
2
votes
Is there anything a supernatural entity (e.g. God) could do to irrefutably prove its existence to humans?
You're going to have to define "supernatural" to answer this question, and I think you'll run into the problem that "supernatural" is in practice defined by a lack of general ...
- 1,305
2
votes
What was Spinoza's take on miracles: what are they are why think they do occur?
See : Baruch Spinoza, Theological-Political Treatise (1670), Ch.6 : On miracles.
I will show:
(1) that nothing happens contrary to nature, but nature maintains an eternal, fixed and ...
- 41.2k
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