New answers tagged miracles
5
votes
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
There's an interesting anecdotal example of this. Since you're looking for an intuitive answer, I think a compelling anecdote is meaningful. This example centers around this famous picture:
This ...
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1
vote
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
Yes, Bayes theorem can be used to talk about miracles and priors simultaneously non-fallaciously and in good faith. Or priors and unicorns. Or priors and QAnon. Bayesian thinking does not tell you ...
- 36k
3
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Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
Just to be clear, standard probabilistic methods and Bayesian methods are doing different things. Standard probability works by creating a probabilistic model based on a set of assumptions, and then ...
- 24.4k
3
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Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
Let:
M: a miracle happened
~M: no miracle happened
R: reports of a miracle
The posterior probability of a miracle given reports of it is expressed as:
P(M|R) = P(R|M) * P(M) / P(R)
Where:
P(R) = P(R|...
- 4,507
3
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Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
Probability vs. Bayesian belief
Firstly, Bayes theorem describes not the probability of the actual event (in its usual frequentest understanding - as likelihood of an event actually happening given ...
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2
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Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
I wouldn't say that no evidence of miracles (not even hypothetical evidence) would be sufficient for rational belief. An earlier answer of mine goes a bit more into how we might theoretically verify ...
- 14k
0
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Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
One of the variables of the Bayes Theorem is the a priori probability of an event. To assign a probability to the occurrence of a given miracle, you would have to know in advance, as a premise, ...
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1
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Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
There is ultimately no objective, canonical way to assign prior probabilities to a hypotheses. And there is ultimately no objective, canonical way to update those prior probabilities after evidence ...
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2
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Did Thomas Bayes truly develop Bayes' theorem in an effort to rebut David Hume's arguments against miracles?
This is only a partial answer, but:
It's worth noting that Price's argument is not chiefly a Bayesian argument about the independence of testimony--that seems to be introduced by Stigler (or, more ...
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18
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Accepted
Can Bayes' theorem be used non-fallaciously to argue for miracles?
If we assume that the probability of a witness testifying to an event is higher if the event actually happened (a reasonable assumption), then it is true that observing that testimony makes the event ...
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